Movies · resolved market
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9489fba6c36a01281916a273db24e169c6a0687d5ce5fce7ef6fe39165697cbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $277,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 74,038$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.21 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…535ebacked Yes | 2c | 17,498$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…c2acbacked Yes | 0c | 12,300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 8,157$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.37 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 7,661$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.16 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…e170backed Yes | 3c | 4,333$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…0c2fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,246$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 3,395$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…5733backed Yes | 3c | 2,546$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…ff4bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 7c | 2,082$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.01 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 14c | 1,350$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c2…dfaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,228$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d9…eff0backed Yes | 6c | 1,192$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,137$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.61 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…ba70backed Yes | 2c | 959.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9adb…50c7backed Yes | 1c | 899.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x703c…e334backed Yes | 6c | 803.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 21c | 800$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 9c | 799.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes | 8c | 777.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…822cbacked Yes | 3c | 771.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 6c | 734.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6b…29fdbacked Yes | 4c | 722.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 3c | 675.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…9d0fbacked Yes | 4c | 652.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 5c | 609.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…df2abacked Yes | 4c | 549.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2216…4accbacked Yes | 3c | 538.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…0064backed Yes | 3c | 536.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…29a0backed Yes | 4c | 518.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…e7e3backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 11c | 480$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f4…5231backed Yes | 22c | 463.89$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32b…94cabacked Yes | 8c | 366.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…6743backed Yes | 10c | 298.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f82…d6abbacked Yes | 10c | 290.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc6…9988backed Yes | 7c | 281.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f9…9d8ebacked Yes | 28c | 222.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 23c | 176.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 28c | 175$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85fe…dedfbacked Yes | 17c | 170$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 19c | 166.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4463…e6e7backed Yes | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…6c64backed Yes | 28c | 143.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…e3e5backed Yes | 7c | 138.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04ac…298bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $105-120m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $120-135m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross between $135-150m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $105m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross more than $150m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.