Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab66a7d5745fc4da8a30a67665ee1de894b740644e643a6c6ec39b17212e4df5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,817,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,608,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,817,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,081 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe64f…44a5backed Yes | 5c | 1,131,417$53,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,671.22 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…f19fbacked Yes | 49c | 1,001,559$487,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487,136.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…f52cbacked No | 58c | 503,564$290,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212,621.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked Yes | 70c | 297,896$208,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208,402.31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed No | 52c | 258,507$134,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123,635.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 0c | 246,427$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.43 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 32c | 243,596$78,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78,785.72 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…0e43backed Yes | 50c | 218,336$108,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108,271.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…740fbacked Yes | 2c | 208,795$4,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,978.03 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2364…2582backed Yes | 62c | 175,710$109,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109,516.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e71…fac4backed Yes | 39c | 171,553$66,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66,973.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113d…a5e6backed Yes | 0c | 170,950$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 18c | 165,390$29,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,719.63 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ee…d947backed No | 64c | 162,818$104,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,861.02 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbccd…c5e5backed Yes | 0c | 159,697$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.75 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked No | 75c | 150,658$113,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,107.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…07c8backed No | 77c | 130,877$100,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,142.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 6c | 121,552$7,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,879.09 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 11c | 117,258$12,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,561.73 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…7e17backed Yes | 0c | 100,895$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 59c | 94,098$55,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,334.54 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50af…a7d8backed Yes | 66c | 79,912$52,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,349.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc5…61fdbacked Yes | 22c | 79,583$17,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,804.83 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 49c | 74,784$36,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,197.83 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…313dbacked No | 48c | 73,014$35,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,894.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d09…1714backed Yes | 2c | 72,081$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked No | 54c | 69,285$37,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,602.98 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked Yes | 2c | 67,231$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.18 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Yes | 58c | 61,969$36,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,243.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 68c | 60,430$41,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,117.1 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…2562backed Yes | 22c | 59,192$13,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,058.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 46c | 59,164$26,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,988.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…4a37backed No | 71c | 57,727$41,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,517.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 0c | 55,200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…dd7abacked Yes | 6c | 54,914$3,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,451.42 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…651abacked No | 44c | 52,977$23,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,880.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d80…7210backed Yes | 28c | 52,015$14,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,368.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 79c | 50,933$40,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,838.96 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked No | 53c | 50,652$26,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,021.61 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7997…fc95backed Yes | 0c | 49,357$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dc…7283backed No | 46c | 46,625$21,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,294.65 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 69c | 43,779$30,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,471.02 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 50c | 41,028$20,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,608.63 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 8c | 40,637$3,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,346.89 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 59c | 40,206$23,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,310.87 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…b5f3backed No | 53c | 40,023$21,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,837.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked No | 24c | 39,873$9,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,136.58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 27c | 39,646$10,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,568.57 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…730bbacked No | 64c | 39,418$25,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,287.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac2f…6229backed Yes | 4c | 38,815$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 49c | 38,765$18,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,881.22 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac0…041fbacked No | 43c | 38,014$16,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,537.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 24c | 37,799$9,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,170.98 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…3ca9backed No | 75c | 37,724$28,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,256.83 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 20c | 37,167$7,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,589.73 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 5c | 34,190$1,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,648.13 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 25c | 33,174$8,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,304.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -53%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 6c | 31,076$1,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.39 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…3200backed Yes | 0c | 29,639$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 46c | 29,100$13,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,668.02 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 39c | 28,772$11,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,184.34 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…2da3backed No | 54c | 28,305$15,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,996.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 56c | 28,092$15,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,246.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +128%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked No | 70c | 27,744$19,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,293.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…f74dbacked Yes | 28c | 27,040$7,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,592.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e4…1009backed No | 58c | 26,781$15,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,238.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…dc70backed Yes | 32c | 26,033$8,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,358.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Yes | 12c | 26,018$3,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,172.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…73e5backed No | 42c | 24,867$10,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,516.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c9…796fbacked Yes | 72c | 24,282$17,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,428.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 55c | 24,172$13,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,818.2 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…512bbacked Yes | 2c | 23,940$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.91 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b8…dcfdbacked Yes | 1c | 23,091$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 65c | 22,907$14,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,960.48 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked No | 42c | 22,845$9,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,160.59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…3d0fbacked Yes | 29c | 22,673$6,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,523.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…6d88backed Yes | 70c | 22,509$15,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,690.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 45c | 22,177$10,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,018.69 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes | 28c | 21,457$6,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,044.68 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed No | 80c | 21,405$17,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,324.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 68c | 21,169$14,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,798.42 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…102abacked Yes | 50c | 20,420$10,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,205.03 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -70%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Yes | 36c | 20,292$7,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,318.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 3c | 20,056$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.96 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 14c | 19,152$2,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,719.17 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…e7e3backed Yes | 79c | 18,594$14,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,621.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5405…3d7cbacked Yes | 24c | 18,538$4,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,438.36 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2541…4f1ebacked No | 74c | 18,265$13,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,805.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed No | 69c | 17,610$12,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,467.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…da44backed Yes | 0c | 17,285$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd049…5de7backed Yes | 10c | 17,213$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,772.13 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4c…54e7backed Yes | 24c | 16,734$3,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,958.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…0ac5backed Yes | 44c | 16,473$7,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,259.03 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 13c | 16,148$2,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,032.88 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…6e17backed Yes | 1c | 16,030$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.71 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…ed6fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,999$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed No | 52c | 15,766$8,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,622.89 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 67c | 15,517$10,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,096.87 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d1…599dbacked No | 74c | 15,498$11,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,101.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.