TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Texans vs. Bears

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texansof Texans, Bears
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$400,680
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$407,911

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $400,680 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3b9e…74aebacked Bears35c61,690$21,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,470.494621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Texans72c25,007$18,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,986.859949.5%49 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Texans61c21,153$12,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,249.7512934.9%45 W · 84 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6761…a94fbacked Bears28c20,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,60012051.7%62 W · 58 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Bears9c16,831$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.7510639.6%42 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6356…1885backed Texans68c13,508$9,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,322.726350.8%32 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed Bears11c13,112$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.9617823%41 W · 137 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf22c…9050backed Texans73c12,898$9,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,522.532842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked Bears28c11,393$3,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,236.0213751.8%71 W · 66 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd057…ae9fbacked Bears22c10,000$2,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,21011821.2%25 W · 93 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Bears28c9,500$2,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,656.5823937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dbd…af92backed Bears20c9,095$1,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,783.2918645.7%85 W · 101 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1eab…5692backed Texans72c9,000$6,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5201353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+56.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Bears27c8,636$2,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,367.9936246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf86d…e314backed Texans72c6,944$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,944.441435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5faf…27bbbacked Texans71c6,772$4,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,951.087857.7%45 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Texans71c6,760$4,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960.3114248.6%69 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Bears9c6,723$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.5321713.8%30 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-50.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3195…a94fbacked Bears9c5,244$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.773455.9%19 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Texans72c5,032$3,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,405.8113942.4%59 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77cf…0e71backed Texans71c4,705$3,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3413351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid+5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed7c…da06backed Texans68c4,627$3,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,463.484634.8%16 W · 30 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Bears27c3,778$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.92250%11 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Bears13c3,576$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.65123.5%12 W · 39 L-8.1wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-37.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe41a…a42dbacked Bears28c3,500$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.995036%18 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Texans79c2,829$2,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.1610334%35 W · 68 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…a821backed Bears9c2,359$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.9812842.2%54 W · 74 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Bears8c2,299$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.425643.8%112 W · 144 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Texans61c2,255$1,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.455038%19 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd244…f24cbacked Texans73c2,008$1,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.036237.1%23 W · 39 L-8.3wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-28.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Bears29c2,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58012022.5%27 W · 93 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5eb7…05f6backed Bears29c1,769$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.5310144.6%45 W · 56 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed Texans76c1,654$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.115955.9%33 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaca6…6b28backed Bears22c1,620$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.8234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-85%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe877…bb43backed Bears33c1,526$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006028.3%17 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d46…7045backed Bears29c1,468$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.7850%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67b5…9f1ebacked Bears22c1,365$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.072937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Bears28c1,303$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.932438%123 W · 201 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefbc…2d01backed Bears6c1,201$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8b5…e05cbacked Bears18c1,200$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.673036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b0b…f9d6backed Texans71c1,200$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3488234.1%28 W · 54 L-10.3wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-29.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2ff0…46e3backed Bears29c1,194$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.6814457.6%83 W · 61 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Bears28c1,161$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.215724.6%14 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed Texans65c1,111$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.859951.5%51 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+28.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9693…07c3backed Bears24c1,048$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9911949.6%59 W · 60 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Bears20c1,023$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.313040%52 W · 78 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Bears21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21014445.8%66 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa15b…30f1backed Texans33c965$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.055341.5%22 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Bears68c953.13$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.135433.3%18 W · 36 L-7.6wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Texans72c943$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.044551.1%23 W · 22 L+9.9wins+0.22per pick29cpaid+235.8%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x09af…d337backed Bears29c938.12$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.643357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ef5…1622backed Bears31c822.16$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.875253.8%28 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Texans64c782.38$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.720440.7%83 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf59e…39cfbacked Bears13c770$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.17847.4%37 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Bears29c745.07$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21522142.1%93 W · 128 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcec3…53a1backed Texans78c724.58$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.312250%11 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc31…971fbacked Bears29c690.48$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014750.3%74 W · 73 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6919…5effbacked Texans70c674.06$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.224852.1%25 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dbe…1d55backed Texans75c666.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.67944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+72.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked Texans71c600$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17411346.9%53 W · 60 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Texans71c555$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.954143.9%18 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec96…b987backed Bears13c533.45$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.771822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc999…3687backed Texans79c528.43$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.021145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick64cpaid-33.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa03b…c3f1backed Texans72c501.61$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.454852.1%25 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ad…4c76backed Bears24c500.43$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.51258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40d5…acd1backed Texans72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14023351.9%121 W · 112 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Texans72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14020246%93 W · 109 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2210…36b0backed Texans72c464.38$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick72cpaid-53.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3c5…e38abacked Texans80c460.63$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.132152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked Texans73c450$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.518650.5%94 W · 92 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Bears29c444$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.7620736.2%75 W · 132 L-13.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Texans77c413.31$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.0177052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf54…676abacked Bears30c410.92$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1242133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid+14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Bears28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11229356%164 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0545…4e37backed Texans73c376.71$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.713815.8%6 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-74.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x48f1…5bccbacked Texans79c375.04$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.38540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9abb…5acebacked Bears20c356.35$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2bb…8561backed Bears21c350.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-15.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4d2f…f304backed Texans72c326.39$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.391573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+24.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7077…e94dbacked Bears24c326$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.241330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Bears13c305.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405945.8%27 W · 32 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Bears29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873336.4%12 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x569e…67dbbacked Texans78c300$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Texans61c300$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1178960.7%54 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fe5…f089backed Bears31c291.75$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb43…b10abacked Bears33c275$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.751136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Texans72c250$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707948.1%38 W · 41 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xad46…f468backed Bears28c250$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee3…1b0fbacked Bears16c243.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+88.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3a8…3f09backed Bears13c240$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.21741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e1…0b47backed Texans76c222$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.287459.5%44 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Texans74c219.71$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1233328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x91df…c5cfbacked Bears28c211.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1130…f920backed Texans72c208.33$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.335457.4%31 W · 23 L+6.1wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+16.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Bears16c207.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332030%6 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-49.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd17a…8eaabacked Bears13c206.96$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264918.4%9 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7173…7d75backed Texans72c203.88$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.092941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Texans73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5433047.9%158 W · 172 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29da…00c6backed Texans78c199.48$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.651216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid+32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Texans64c194.44$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7022838.6%88 W · 140 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.