TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Chiefs vs. Bills

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Billsof Chiefs, Bills
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,416,259
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,516,765

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,416,259 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 743 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe5c0…3f84backed Bills62c175,628$108,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,990.546950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b45…ea09backed Chiefs34c118,282$40,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,694.32544%11 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed Bills79c48,562$38,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,429.13976.9%30 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x94dc…c779backed Bills63c46,037$28,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,100.177853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff0…46e3backed Bills68c43,080$29,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,792.7714457.6%83 W · 61 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b46…db60backed Chiefs47c31,468$14,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,663.841163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed Chiefs20c29,211$5,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,986.3417823%41 W · 137 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4b9…cf5ebacked Chiefs34c25,010$8,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,409.595925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd398…c487backed Chiefs42c25,000$10,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,621.194634.8%16 W · 30 L-8.7wins-0.19per pick54cpaid-37%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x7dda…8b1ebacked Chiefs40c20,099$8,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,088.331464.3%9 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked Chiefs39c17,465$6,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,723.9313751.8%71 W · 66 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ced…f699backed Chiefs30c17,040$5,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,111.92862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b4…e0febacked Chiefs43c16,264$6,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,993.632441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Chiefs21c15,615$3,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,346.4236246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Bills55c15,326$8,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,824.913745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Bills55c14,690$8,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,638.4344246.8%207 W · 235 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0078…c9cdbacked Bills57c14,200$8,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,039.97742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa34e…895ebacked Chiefs1c12,511$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502630.8%8 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+16.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Bills65c12,341$7,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,367.719732%31 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaac…3e9dbacked Bills55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5001172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74b4…3791backed Chiefs45c10,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5001323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x719d…4e73backed Chiefs29c9,796$2,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,829.172119%4 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-74.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed Chiefs41c9,210$3,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,787.994134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-35.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc8c8…fc4cbacked Chiefs3c9,183$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.644339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e25…ff35backed Bills80c8,184$6,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.781090%9 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick70cpaid+33.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae76…dce5backed Bills55c8,019$4,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,608.2727339.2%107 W · 166 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Bills56c7,944$4,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,495.4924652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Bills55c7,678$4,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,463.6928556.5%161 W · 124 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c80…a608backed Bills63c7,569$4,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,793.915527.3%15 W · 40 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa501…9f0fbacked Chiefs45c6,893$3,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,101.735641.1%23 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Chiefs20c6,334$1,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.88850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5de8…cfb9backed Chiefs6c6,253$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.245939%23 W · 36 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5445…58f0backed Chiefs36c6,093$2,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,220.153333.3%11 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-36.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x23cb…2fa6backed Chiefs44c5,789$2,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,546.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e1…69a4backed Chiefs33c5,700$1,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8565829.3%17 W · 41 L-9.2wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-47.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x28aa…a986backed Bills59c5,455$3,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,236.55650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac5d…a028backed Chiefs28c5,333$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.74520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55af…34aabacked Chiefs48c5,299$2,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,521.57560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62b1…9e01backed Chiefs41c5,019$2,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,057.93825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+102.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec7c…69aebacked Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b5…a7dfbacked Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b30…d81bbacked Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa25…ffd9backed Chiefs44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d24…ed0bbacked Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2501070%7 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa527…b702backed Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick64cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac3…aa83backed Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2501020%2 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-38%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ba9…d18cbacked Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb04b…4cc6backed Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2f4…ec16backed Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8298…92b2backed Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2501030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa858…4a65backed Bills54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,300771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92c4…cbe5backed Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2501127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12b0…fe32backed Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x412b…f117backed Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2501127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6869…2650backed Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2504100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7d3…3c57backed Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2504100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77ad…9c2fbacked Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd64…0a67backed Chiefs47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,350933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b17…1f86backed Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2501225%3 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f56…5711backed Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2501127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe831…a1e9backed Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2501070%7 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe55d…802cbacked Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-55.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc6d7…cce8backed Bills53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,350966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb46c…9e19backed Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick65cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c1d…5e7cbacked Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc1…af87backed Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f4…f2fbbacked Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd93…cbb9backed Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2501020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-45.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b3a…8e55backed Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7734…ff65backed Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+27.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2832…3d70backed Chiefs46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7efb…68e0backed Chiefs46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-46.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x476f…1b29backed Chiefs44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf08d…6912backed Bills56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,200560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd72b…99dabacked Bills56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aef…0100backed Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f0e…bd07backed Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+35.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31a6…71f9backed Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x332f…d5f7backed Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76c0…c65dbacked Bills53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,350580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b7e…08ccbacked Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick64cpaid+43.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbbf…2feebacked Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x936e…df07backed Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcac6…6745backed Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7231…5986backed Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2501070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07c8…6c29backed Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+24.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6011…d9d0backed Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e3e…b917backed Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2501127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedaf…54f8backed Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec27…c9c6backed Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52bf…e39abacked Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3208…35a7backed Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2501070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4522…bb66backed Chiefs46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2b…23d7backed Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,25040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3970…ede1backed Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2501127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5f…96efbacked Chiefs45c5,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2501020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a48…ee2dbacked Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2501172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cbd…664cbacked Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick68cpaid+27.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77a9…b20ebacked Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+32.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a8a…845abacked Bills55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.