TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,810,115
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,825,540

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,810,115 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 657 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c401,299$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.61769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6301…3074backed Yes1c202,877$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ac7…99e7backed Yes1c185,589$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.5830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12a7…399bbacked Yes1c175,618$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.744311.6%5 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-65%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc2a…1158backed Yes0c144,333$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.39616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68b0…c482backed Yes0c136,100$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.7820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd95…99f2backed Yes7c116,200$8,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,474.5615722.3%35 W · 122 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes9c106,255$9,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,501.779724.7%24 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d0b…4f4dbacked Yes1c75,329$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.9342.9%1 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-78.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Yes13c73,238$9,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,476.399949.5%49 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddba…045bbacked Yes0c65,020$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes10c56,984$5,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,739.175724.6%14 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes1c54,156$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.991014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c48,087$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.72430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes1c44,683$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.83520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e73…2b5cbacked Yes12c43,825$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,039.85520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55ab…69efbacked Yes12c42,284$4,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,862.65425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x165a…61ecbacked Yes12c42,269$4,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,860.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c7b…f474backed Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40557.3%4 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x176d…4a26backed Yes2c39,381$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.65220%0 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes0c36,697$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.7916226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1f1b…01f7backed Yes0c33,624$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc467…ea72backed Yes0c33,020$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda57…a851backed Yes0c33,020$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfe…38e8backed Yes12c32,869$3,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,779.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a12…01cebacked Yes12c31,311$3,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,830.624351.2%22 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes11c24,141$2,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,772.497541.3%31 W · 44 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17b0…4041backed Yes11c21,773$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd605…74a3backed Yes12c20,690$2,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,386.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf48a…c5fbbacked Yes12c20,690$2,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,379.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb59a…8171backed Yes11c20,606$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,359.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa000…68e9backed Yes11c20,342$2,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,319.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc727…e52bbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd571…55e7backed Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20667.6%5 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-81%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c18,813$1,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.6552828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes5c17,543$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.7325643.8%112 W · 144 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x31cf…8834backed Yes6c16,387$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.192619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16e3…22d5backed Yes0c15,400$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes13c13,050$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.8819436.6%71 W · 123 L-14.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x41f9…37eabacked Yes12c12,333$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes11c12,251$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.341809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes0c12,086$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.09254%1 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid-72.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b52…e7d8backed Yes11c11,827$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.1240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d7c…73a2backed Yes12c10,957$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x523d…7648backed Yes12c10,957$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x755b…9812backed Yes12c10,957$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f9b…c38abacked Yes12c10,957$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dd7…4fe2backed Yes12c10,957$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e9…320cbacked Yes12c10,956$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf6f…b0e8backed Yes12c10,956$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e6…ad0abacked Yes12c10,922$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.07425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-67.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7dc…8fe8backed Yes12c10,907$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071b…de87backed Yes12c10,907$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x907b…1177backed Yes12c10,907$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7b…a4c1backed Yes12c10,907$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89e3…e78ebacked Yes7c10,709$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.5180%0 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fa…6672backed Yes0c10,450$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes12c10,321$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.834623.9%11 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f55…c4c7backed Yes0c10,310$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1809…f0bebacked Yes11c10,171$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18b…dbd2backed Yes11c10,171$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.51425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+290.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes11c10,003$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.95464.3%2 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcd7…e61bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102711.1%3 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-80.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6cc…c9debacked Yes12c8,694$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9259…7930backed Yes12c8,620$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2970…e1c9backed Yes12c8,552$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes8c8,342$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.356233.9%21 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b35…a749backed Yes1c8,107$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc30a…353bbacked Yes10c8,044$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f6…3cd9backed Yes11c8,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0274…307bbacked Yes13c7,518$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002714.8%4 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-54.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14dd…13eebacked Yes2c7,335$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.23385.3%2 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3b…fae0backed Yes1c7,050$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes8c7,001$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.1818051.7%93 W · 87 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf88d…2838backed Yes12c6,897$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes1c6,144$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8454.4%2 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-69.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b6…3addbacked Yes2c6,060$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.250%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed Yes13c6,059$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.651030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid+29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8155…5377backed Yes13c6,000$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…9629backed Yes12c5,921$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.9650%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes4c5,656$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.8514837.2%55 W · 93 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dd5…6e61backed Yes14c5,633$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-73.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc469…dd61backed Yes7c5,354$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x698e…8042backed Yes1c5,268$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes10c5,207$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.1524738.1%94 W · 153 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes12c5,152$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.115036%18 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…2822backed Yes12c5,135$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x128e…a35bbacked Yes3c5,099$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.632619.2%5 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cfc…7f80backed Yes10c5,012$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.595628.6%16 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes12c5,000$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3079…b5fabacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c5,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa472…45aebacked Yes11c5,000$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.132133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes0c4,596$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.481936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0997…c238backed Yes12c4,242$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.741250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6434…cdbebacked Yes7c4,214$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005429.6%16 W · 38 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a4a…3129backed Yes0c4,080$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08260%0 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x980e…7e06backed Yes0c4,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+74%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.