TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Bears win Super Bowl 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,672,880
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,639,083

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,672,880 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8bba…9b86backed Yes0c963,647$4,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,785.13160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d0b…4f4dbacked Yes0c317,817$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.78342.9%1 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-78.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x980e…7e06backed Yes1c240,600$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.25454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+74%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0240…e3a1backed Yes0c237,278$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2150…8293backed Yes3c149,840$4,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,195.511136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-40.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c139,000$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6861769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes1c116,997$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.466541.5%27 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x016d…689ebacked Yes1c116,667$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47bc…c043backed Yes2c104,911$2,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,072.416734.3%23 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes3c100,911$2,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,536.82638.5%10 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick26cpaid-20.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb3a7…e661backed Yes3c88,437$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3203522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes3c58,930$1,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,716.269724.7%24 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd18f…681ebacked Yes4c55,523$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-86.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1cc…dad8backed Yes1c31,667$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf792…1682backed Yes2c22,607$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2efc…5686backed Yes2c21,546$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.274314%6 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick23cpaid+39.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes3c21,420$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.081809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe577…36d6backed Yes3c20,137$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x176d…4a26backed Yes5c19,799$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.9220%0 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c19,719$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.862430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb71…c0e2backed Yes3c19,609$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3341…d6f8backed Yes3c19,278$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.19922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa437…274ebacked Yes1c19,231$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c7b…f474backed Yes0c15,962$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.96557.3%4 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302711.1%3 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-80.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34d3…f341backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49f3…76dcbacked Yes1c13,622$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c13,000$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.311061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes2c11,735$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.054623.9%11 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033c…5eacbacked Yes6c11,587$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.231435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb0e…41aebacked Yes5c10,656$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes1c10,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011945.4%54 W · 65 L+0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50442.3%1 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-93.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes3c9,933$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.125724.6%14 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4350…6676backed Yes1c9,329$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b0…553abacked Yes1c9,329$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…56d6backed Yes1c8,717$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes1c8,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100120%0 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes2c7,602$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.216832.1%54 W · 114 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f63…1031backed Yes3c7,575$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd707…2121backed Yes3c7,400$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.690%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9693…07c3backed Yes2c6,875$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11011949.6%59 W · 60 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes2c6,136$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes1c6,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaed2…8e93backed Yes5c5,100$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.450%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c00…5d94backed Yes1c5,031$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.81323.1%1 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Yes2c5,002$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.054422.7%10 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x787b…5824backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x349f…305ebacked Yes1c3,738$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe006…39b9backed Yes3c3,622$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.55128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x779a…7c12backed Yes1c3,494$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd82a…e46ebacked Yes3c3,422$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0458…620ebacked Yes0c3,399$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fa9…45dbbacked Yes0c3,366$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfb6…a79fbacked Yes3c3,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+693.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa87…6a63backed Yes2c3,166$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.49120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x886a…c167backed Yes2c3,166$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.49156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2bb…8561backed Yes3c3,030$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-15.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xabbf…2744backed Yes1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee3…1b0fbacked Yes2c2,958$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+88.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xade4…ec2dbacked Yes1c2,857$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c2,525$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1852828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34c2…f6fbbacked Yes1c2,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5368.3%3 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b5a…d5d2backed Yes1c2,500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c77…76cebacked Yes1c2,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a41…712fbacked Yes1c2,365$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1b3…60d8backed Yes2c2,273$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1d…48d8backed Yes1c2,267$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes3c2,127$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.193112.9%4 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-32.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…bdf7backed Yes2c2,083$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505332.1%17 W · 36 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-37.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xadc8…918ebacked Yes1c2,002$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a9d…39b7backed Yes3c2,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-76.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8538…cd51backed Yes3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333%1 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bef…9be3backed Yes6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-72.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…1ccebacked Yes3c2,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662015%3 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea10…f59cbacked Yes1c1,992$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes2c1,909$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.142412.5%3 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-74.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x973a…0cf8backed Yes3c1,853$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a4a…3129backed Yes1c1,749$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5260%0 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe18e…d087backed Yes1c1,660$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes3c1,657$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1118051.7%93 W · 87 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d05…0ee4backed Yes1c1,614$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11cc…0b59backed Yes1c1,571$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b8…ccfbbacked Yes2c1,500$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204e…4236backed Yes2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.53511.4%4 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e41…cf4dbacked Yes2c1,336$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0590%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes2c1,259$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2121713.8%30 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-50.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcdd4…0b7bbacked Yes3c1,250$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x955c…83c0backed Yes3c1,206$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57be…97e9backed Yes3c1,200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0651…5007backed Yes2c1,038$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51240%0 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76ac…939cbacked Yes6c1,034$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae7…1915backed Yes3c1,027$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a25…a78abacked Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+589.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…fd65backed Yes2c1,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2786…7b3fbacked Yes3c1,000$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes3c999$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9726331.6%83 W · 180 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf36f…9391backed Yes3c931.03$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2750%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dcb…062fbacked Yes2c895.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x036c…d3f6backed Yes3c851.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.