TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,154,547
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,659,066

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,154,547 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 464 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes0c727,764$3,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,550.541014%4 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-87.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaba…8e59backed Yes1c314,081$3,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,589.0260%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b0…3f9ebacked Yes0c234,590$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.2650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cc1…ad6cbacked Yes0c223,344$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ac7…99e7backed Yes0c132,869$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.4830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6301…3074backed Yes0c119,983$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.9340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc69d…1262backed Yes2c110,000$2,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1454131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-26%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd95…99f2backed Yes3c109,120$3,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,711.4115722.3%35 W · 122 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f5e…8803backed Yes5c94,522$4,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,962.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x438d…3ec8backed Yes5c87,874$4,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,655.0250%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes3c83,509$2,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,505.279240.2%37 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes0c83,396$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.153818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes4c81,888$3,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,662.659724.7%24 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87e4…68c7backed Yes5c80,184$4,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,285.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes0c66,674$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.78140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes1c64,280$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.482711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c7b…f474backed Yes0c59,207$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.67557.3%4 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes3c58,311$1,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,905.385724.6%14 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c57,165$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.051769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Yes5c56,105$3,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0589949.5%49 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8d…b3fabacked Yes5c53,382$2,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,829.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x854e…c489backed Yes1c52,276$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c45,961$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.692430.8%2 W · 241 L+1.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e61…9860backed Yes1c45,326$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.33166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x390d…350bbacked Yes2c42,857$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.74147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes1c42,437$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.4912934.9%45 W · 84 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes1c40,414$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.1734.1%3 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick4cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf912…bba6backed Yes1c40,400$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ee…2c30backed Yes1c40,226$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.982025%5 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-52.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes0c40,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160254%1 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid-72.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes0c39,955$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.82911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-82.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d73…39a6backed Yes1c37,720$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd707…2121backed Yes2c37,128$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.7190%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes0c36,302$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.21185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+208.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bba…9b86backed Yes0c36,000$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6920…9d9bbacked Yes5c33,998$1,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,863.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cc3…2f17backed Yes1c29,677$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.0680%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes3c29,580$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.661809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes0c29,349$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.86667.6%5 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-81%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3b…fae0backed Yes1c27,260$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.5470%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8371…06febacked Yes5c27,121$1,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.564318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+68.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x064d…a0e4backed Yes2c25,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002313%3 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked Yes0c24,838$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.351414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-70%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9a…b2c6backed Yes1c24,297$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.96541.5%27 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes1c23,417$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7513024.6%32 W · 98 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x47c8…20d5backed Yes5c22,222$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc009…fe0cbacked Yes5c22,222$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd062…5d4dbacked Yes5c22,222$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a9d…39b7backed Yes1c22,105$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.521910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-76.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf29f…c5d9backed Yes1c20,643$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.933125.8%8 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6208…edc0backed Yes1c20,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-50.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc22f…b8fcbacked Yes1c20,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3003…5dd2backed Yes1c19,980$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8290…e3bdbacked Yes1c17,999$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10270%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ca…84acbacked Yes5c17,259$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.555250%26 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xade7…a6b8backed Yes1c17,000$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d0b…4f4dbacked Yes0c15,950$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.85342.9%1 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-78.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe006…39b9backed Yes5c15,873$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.93128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34ac…6e16backed Yes1c15,842$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.6170%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c14,596$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.211061.9%2 W · 104 L+0.5wins0.00per pick1cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes4c14,145$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.4518051.7%93 W · 87 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89e3…e78ebacked Yes2c14,127$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.54180%0 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c00…5d94backed Yes1c13,109$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.9323.1%1 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96d7…cc8fbacked Yes1c12,994$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb5b…84e8backed Yes6c12,296$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7503429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc7b…d8d5backed Yes1c12,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes1c11,761$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.06454.4%2 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-69.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe54…41d6backed Yes1c11,575$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14dd…13eebacked Yes2c11,574$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.28385.3%2 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed0e…b305backed Yes0c11,211$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508921.3%19 W · 70 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02ff…0562backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf374…ce1abacked Yes5c10,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+26.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x401c…75c9backed Yes1c10,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x706a…f390backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc727…e52bbacked Yes0c9,734$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.46160%0 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ca…5830backed Yes1c9,461$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002825%7 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c9,193$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.7252828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6c5…ac49backed Yes1c9,091$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-39.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8538…cd51backed Yes3c9,081$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.59333%1 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f67…1962backed Yes6c9,000$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0274…307bbacked Yes6c8,989$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002714.8%4 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-54.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27d3…22ffbacked Yes6c8,346$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes5c8,272$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.617541.3%31 W · 44 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Yes3c8,122$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.999754.6%53 W · 44 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0353…74a4backed Yes0c8,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe854…aa44backed Yes3c7,669$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.7490%0 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1754…f6c2backed Yes3c7,506$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ad0…a9d8backed Yes2c7,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503040%12 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb039…010fbacked Yes1c7,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-68.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8518…0a0cbacked Yes0c7,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes4c7,434$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.754623.9%11 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ec…65adbacked Yes6c7,375$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.1930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x371b…ebffbacked Yes1c7,238$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea4…a4fabacked Yes0c7,052$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3150%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf804…1ecebacked Yes1c6,600$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc6…9c0dbacked Yes1c6,600$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63f8…bca2backed Yes1c6,600$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc79…b9bcbacked Yes1c6,580$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80f8…6715backed Yes1c6,560$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39ea…36d1backed Yes1c6,540$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.