TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd605…74a3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
17
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: CS2, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 54 out of 100; worst Tennis at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Avalanche vs. Wildbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$12.07
Rangers vs. Maple Leafsbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Red Wings vs. Starsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.29
All 3 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+133.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit - Map 1 Winnerbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$31.88
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffsbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$10.77
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Pelicans vs. Wizardsbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+78.6%+$9.43
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-01-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+150%+$22.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$11.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$772Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+37.4%+$288.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+37%+$4.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stagebacked Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$3.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$32.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$2,386Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST-100%-$2,386.21
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.