TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$244,689
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$228,089

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,689 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb62e…8a6bbacked Yes5c10,767$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+119.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1cc…e2ebbacked Yes4c10,490$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c8,743$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.333313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f72…0f9abacked Yes13c6,829$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes5c6,177$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.1818725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd20…6f35backed Yes10c6,109$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.86333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes11c4,888$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.189129.7%27 W · 64 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes4c4,875$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.1490%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67d6…245ebacked Yes3c4,522$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.33911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-78.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4977…8ad6backed Yes10c4,145$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes10c3,312$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.685925.4%15 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c3,096$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4913216.7%22 W · 110 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,638$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.081,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes4c2,463$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9113714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bea…2ddabacked Yes7c2,351$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.44812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes4c2,006$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802516%4 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid+15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401926.3%5 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4522…897ebacked Yes6c1,986$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+32%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes4c1,966$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779831.6%31 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e6…19f5backed Yes3c1,918$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3578…d9febacked Yes3c1,827$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60140%0 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe30f…e04bbacked Yes9c1,785$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes7c1,733$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+95.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes4c1,643$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.23435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-24.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes1c1,640$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.096530.8%20 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes9c1,500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13528320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23b1…7b97backed Yes14c1,383$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes8c1,322$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013341.4%55 W · 78 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…9ea8backed Yes4c1,291$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x103d…b4a9backed Yes4c1,282$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.97922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+165.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x916f…0033backed Yes12c1,223$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c1,111$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.32827.3%6 W · 76 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e88…301cbacked Yes2c1,104$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.071729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908843.2%38 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes2c967.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3516535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2aa2…36f6backed Yes11c908.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100120%0 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa553…3eaebacked Yes9c821.23$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7560%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes7c804$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.271428.5%12 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b0d1backed Yes4c800$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0a3…8ef8backed Yes13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd511…241cbacked Yes3c725.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.731315.4%2 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick7cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec06…caebbacked Yes12c714.07$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.14425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21b4…967dbacked Yes4c702.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+233.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe91…509ebacked Yes6c666.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401010%1 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-85.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cf3…4ec6backed Yes17c582.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+66.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes4c564.17$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9911010%11 W · 99 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf877…803ebacked Yes7c563.14$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed Yes3c550.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-76.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc023…ccf8backed Yes9c517.25$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.552520%5 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c510$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.311343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2de…5c13backed Yes7c505.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b4f…bb30backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c23…0266backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb11e…84c5backed Yes2c490.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.023231.3%10 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes3c456.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.26210%0 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4b8…03a0backed Yes11c445.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc3…262ebacked Yes9c444.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f56…185ebacked Yes6c433.33$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4947…5fc0backed Yes6c411.77$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd605…74a3backed Yes8c410$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ee8…8069backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes3c376.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.76736.8%5 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes3c373.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.36419.8%4 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc45…6805backed Yes4c356.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+36%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c1f…15d7backed Yes12c346.34$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa287…577ebacked Yes7c338.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.85616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-77.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x65cc…02dcbacked Yes3c317.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.95714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid+29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83de…1786backed Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36e0…19b9backed Yes14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-62.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7414528.3%41 W · 104 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456838.2%26 W · 42 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce32…a145backed Yes7c297.43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fef…0cc5backed Yes9c288.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252425%6 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9dc…1db2backed Yes16c273.83$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2037740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed Yes15c250$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.54942.9%21 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a3…e2abbacked Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecc…3739backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20130%0 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01f4…d22dbacked Yes13c239.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-73.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f73…893abacked Yes11c236.36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…63a3backed Yes9c233.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-86.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208030%24 W · 56 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb192…6d56backed Yes19c220.64$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9de…b193backed Yes15c220.33$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.051118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x519a…1551backed Yes23c218.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick21cpaid+30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29d0…3d13backed Yes12c208.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7fc1…13aabacked Yes11c201.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.21353.8%7 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.30per pick23cpaid+211.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb65e…3e11backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19f8…fa4dbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-63.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104513.3%6 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea61…8f05backed Yes12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202025%5 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4947…d6fabacked Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16385.3%2 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8662…c94fbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203026.7%8 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+25.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x50ce…321cbacked Yes14c199.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27475%3 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.51per pick24cpaid+283.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x32f0…7f90backed Yes10c187.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0db2…f18abacked Yes9c180$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+74.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes12c175$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.574738.3%18 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90db…a3b1backed Yes8c175$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.