Tennis · resolved market
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 ATP Cincinnati Men’s Singles tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23180f9a89e0b5a9ed35f48bdebc3d4f76c6b2e68dc9348e2adda453d958d255
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 63c | 2,510$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.34 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Yes | 38c | 1,200$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 62c | 1,154$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.64 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed No | 63c | 999.99$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 39c | 961.26$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.21 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…06febacked Yes | 37c | 852$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 40c | 799.07$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.11 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed No | 62c | 760.68$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.81 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94f8…e851backed Yes | 37c | 748.43$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.92 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8435…526fbacked Yes | 38c | 328.95$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6807…391ebacked Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 38c | 300$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e5…7c2fbacked Yes | 38c | 265.47$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb956…c475backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd79b…705fbacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 56c | 242.29$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.89 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…2bf5backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4052backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba1…6c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 181.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09cb…218ebacked No | 62c | 180$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeead…a0debacked Yes | 45c | 176.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 36c | 164.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 79c | 133$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 21c | 133$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb7…5659backed Yes | 41c | 122.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 41c | 122$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…d47cbacked Yes | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed No | 62c | 110$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…5686backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb495…3a50backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +162.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…bf70backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…6fffbacked Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…e24fbacked No | 61c | 84.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4f…2d6fbacked Yes | 46c | 69.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0968…589fbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2994…2351backed Yes | 42c | 43.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 61c | 38.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5977…2136backed Yes | 38c | 33.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56af…6c89backed No | 60c | 32.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 39c | 26.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed No | 59c | 23.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2024 ATP Cincinnati Men’s Singles tournament?this page
- Will Jannik Sinner win the 2024 ATP Cincinnati Men’s Singles tournament?Yes won
- Will Alexander Zverev win the 2024 ATP Cincinnati Men’s Singles tournament?No won
- Will Andrey Rublev win the 2024 ATP Cincinnati Men’s Singles tournament?No won
- Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2024 ATP Cincinnati Men’s Singles tournament?No won
- Will another player win the 2024 ATP Cincinnati Men’s Singles tournament? Market Description:No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.