Tweets · resolved market
Trump posts 20-29 times on X?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c99707eb18ef1fcc485fbee4f9cf7c7e3de28af153ff968952c4f93187319b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed No | 9c | 5,436$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 4c | 4,710$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.32 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 62c | 4,337$2,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,667.29 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 75c | 4,307$3,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.05 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 31c | 4,258$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,956.65 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bda…121bbacked Yes | 71c | 3,348$2,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Yes | 14c | 3,166$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,722.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 69c | 3,068$2,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.25 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 74c | 2,517$1,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.68 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,368$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,059.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 15cpaid | +506.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 15c | 2,227$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,892.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba6…c060backed No | 47c | 2,191$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…a652backed Yes | 12c | 1,769$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,600$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…e314backed Yes | 29c | 1,539$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 23c | 1,500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +244.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2f…479fbacked Yes | 72c | 1,404$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe407…0e8bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,217$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.02 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 66c | 1,187$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.55 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…8100backed Yes | 73c | 1,117$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.61 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 52c | 1,104$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.48 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…5760backed Yes | 15c | 1,069$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ceb…4790backed Yes | 26c | 1,063$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.27 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff25…1738backed Yes | 18c | 962.52$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cc…31fdbacked No | 9c | 946.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 3c | 905.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e3…246bbacked Yes | 38c | 855.12$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Yes | 54c | 821.81$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.24 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 30c | 810.08$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.79 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 41c | 738.79$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.28 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 34c | 651.64$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.5 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 19c | 648$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.96 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 19c | 614.63$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.86 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd94a…4824backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 39c | 449.69$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.53 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe785…1180backed Yes | 13c | 444$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +209.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23bf…578bbacked Yes | 38c | 439.97$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.78 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…e69dbacked Yes | 23c | 404.43$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +341.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed Yes | 20c | 350$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…d143backed Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9411…271cbacked Yes | 27c | 278$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes | 16c | 271.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…9b86backed Yes | 18c | 270$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.6 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…9b75backed Yes | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…5e3ebacked Yes | 26c | 262.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6270…243bbacked Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 16cpaid | +126%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 55c | 231.8$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 65cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…764fbacked Yes | 22c | 220.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.17 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9864…5f30backed Yes | 14c | 207.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +133.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a43…d871backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf33…0dacbacked Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f8…60acbacked No | 10c | 196.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 57c | 180.02$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.93 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…22eebacked Yes | 13c | 150.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 20cpaid | +338.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 33c | 150$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…102abacked Yes | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…7680backed Yes | 36c | 140$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 14c | 140$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…8ce6backed Yes | 74c | 125.01$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 67c | 104.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed No | 52c | 101.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 25c | 95.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…9236backed Yes | 24c | 87.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…50f5backed Yes | 39c | 86.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…7fbfbacked Yes | 13c | 84.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…b8f1backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cc…04b4backed Yes | 27c | 64.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…511bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16a…962dbacked Yes | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee80…d955backed Yes | 44c | 29.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump posts 20-29 times on X?this page
- Trump posts 10-19 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 100 or more times on X?No won
- Trump posts 30-39 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 40-49 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 50-99 times on X?No won
- Trump posts less than 10 times on X?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.