Tweets · resolved market
Trump posts 30-39 times on X?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23cd677a845c77d8661d1eac9f4a637d19c0db4e1300ac6ce5f21c1278772123
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a45…4a71backed Yes | 7c | 21,927$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bda…121bbacked Yes | 6c | 9,639$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 5,852$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.29 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,712$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 6c | 3,590$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.76 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…5e3ebacked Yes | 35c | 3,468$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f8…60acbacked Yes | 5c | 2,467$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.67 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 3c | 2,008$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,791$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.94 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 12c | 1,527$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.22 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 1,520$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.19 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,269$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.76 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…c5aebacked No | 70c | 1,056$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Yes | 10c | 1,031$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1785…b782backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Yes | 28c | 905$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 7c | 899.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 9c | 849.84$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…764fbacked Yes | 27c | 842.76$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 12c | 738.79$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…38e6backed Yes | 10c | 682.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Yes | 4c | 608.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23bf…578bbacked Yes | 31c | 564.52$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 6c | 550.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…a652backed No | 75c | 534.67$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 22c | 471.46$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.72 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ceb…4790backed Yes | 7c | 440.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…e38abacked No | 71c | 436.45$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe785…1180backed Yes | 25c | 434.67$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +209.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x867a…354bbacked Yes | 36c | 418.16$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed Yes | 24c | 349.91$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…bb41backed Yes | 7c | 346$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 26c | 288$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…9b86backed Yes | 18c | 277.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9411…271cbacked Yes | 30c | 277$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9864…5f30backed Yes | 26c | 263.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +133.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cc…04b4backed Yes | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…511bbacked Yes | 23c | 250$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…5760backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 27c | 222$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9875…5809backed Yes | 14c | 213.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa850…e2f8backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…33c5backed No | 69c | 199.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 9c | 161.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251d…2bf4backed Yes | 35c | 144.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…dcf4backed No | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 15c | 137.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…7f4fbacked No | 71c | 125.74$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe7…e766backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e00…e541backed Yes | 26c | 105.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…2418backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Yes | 28c | 99.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 15cpaid | +506.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x251d…6c30backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c2…512cbacked Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 76c | 59.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…7680backed Yes | 28c | 57.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f1…5bccbacked Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…2a02backed No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…b8f1backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…7bedbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…5686backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1239…3cebbacked Yes | 28c | 46.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked No | 77c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x074b…a249backed Yes | 32c | 35.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 40cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump posts 30-39 times on X?this page
- Trump posts 10-19 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 100 or more times on X?No won
- Trump posts 20-29 times on X?Yes won
- Trump posts 40-49 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 50-99 times on X?No won
- Trump posts less than 10 times on X?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.