Tweets · resolved market
Trump posts 50-99 times on X?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa024f28735abb0a09565830d395c2e28202dc349895136371325c0552761b35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $174,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bda…121bbacked No | 73c | 29,692$21,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,980.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23bf…578bbacked Yes | 28c | 19,785$5,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,539.92 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 0c | 19,710$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 1c | 17,300$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.6 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 73c | 13,768$9,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,772.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 65cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes | 26c | 7,668$1,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f8…60acbacked Yes | 2c | 5,186$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3956backed Yes | 1c | 2,875$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Yes | 25c | 2,633$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f69…9c7abacked No | 79c | 2,544$2,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e00…e541backed Yes | 21c | 1,740$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…06febacked Yes | 9c | 1,565$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…4a71backed Yes | 28c | 1,339$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 26c | 1,267$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 23c | 1,202$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.48 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 14c | 1,196$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.82 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked Yes | 11c | 1,166$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…7d47backed Yes | 22c | 1,091$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.51 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 26c | 909.14$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.3 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed No | 76c | 795.09$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.82 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 4c | 751$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 2c | 750.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 3c | 738.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a43…d871backed Yes | 18c | 699.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…5c65backed Yes | 31c | 666$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 642.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe741…c76dbacked No | 80c | 628.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 25c | 600$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +244.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…09fcbacked Yes | 33c | 597.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Yes | 27c | 555$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…764fbacked Yes | 32c | 550.62$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked No | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 6c | 499.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…bdbabacked Yes | 24c | 486.41$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.74 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 69c | 455$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.29 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +187%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…9b75backed Yes | 26c | 382.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 11c | 358.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…67a9backed No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ceb…4790backed No | 79c | 247.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab93…c40bbacked No | 78c | 202.56$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…8626backed Yes | 6c | 189.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b52…47ccbacked Yes | 16c | 185$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…cef3backed Yes | 15c | 173.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…7f4fbacked Yes | 20c | 170.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…b8f1backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd94a…4824backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 20c | 112.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…2418backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe7…e766backed Yes | 31c | 96.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed No | 11c | 95.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +251.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc75f…5b1ebacked No | 77c | 91.34$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b7…533dbacked No | 70c | 85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +101%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…b3febacked No | 77c | 84.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…50f5backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x613c…58b5backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d81…5a37backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 23c | 70.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2321…62aebacked No | 78c | 67.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Yes | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd76…6c23backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…c6c2backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb0…7326backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb276…d4debacked Yes | 23c | 52.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fac…e4e1backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa6…f4b0backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f81…736ebacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x171d…c8e8backed No | 77c | 25.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…e90dbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…6239backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1f…5dafbacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…d686backed No | 73c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump posts 50-99 times on X?this page
- Trump posts 10-19 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 100 or more times on X?No won
- Trump posts 20-29 times on X?Yes won
- Trump posts 30-39 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 40-49 times on X?No won
- Trump posts less than 10 times on X?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.