Tweets · resolved market
Trump posts 100 or more times on X?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa895397b00a3cdfe851aecc131189c25d330048a74e2f8062761e74210c8fe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,437$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…4a71backed Yes | 3c | 10,725$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 1c | 10,169$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23bf…578bbacked Yes | 3c | 8,767$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…c5aebacked Yes | 14c | 6,014$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3956backed Yes | 1c | 3,529$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 3c | 2,030$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…7d47backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.2 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes | 5c | 1,640$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42dd…48b7backed Yes | 3c | 1,025$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac0…041fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x251d…6c30backed Yes | 5c | 965.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…764fbacked Yes | 6c | 908.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 10c | 871$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 2c | 782.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…8626backed Yes | 7c | 600.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f8…60acbacked Yes | 14c | 573.07$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 5c | 550$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 12c | 521.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…9b75backed Yes | 4c | 508.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x613c…58b5backed Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 10c | 450.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +244.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 4c | 432$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Yes | 10c | 410$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…a87dbacked Yes | 13c | 405.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 8c | 401.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a5…f95bbacked Yes | 5c | 356$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6867…25b8backed Yes | 30c | 350$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc81e…74a5backed Yes | 15c | 338.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…3ababacked Yes | 6c | 330$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 11c | 301.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9b…19dfbacked Yes | 4c | 251.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked Yes | 24c | 205.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…50f5backed Yes | 10c | 199.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…cef3backed Yes | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…8100backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…895fbacked No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1b…c18cbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump posts 100 or more times on X?this page
- Trump posts 10-19 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 20-29 times on X?Yes won
- Trump posts 30-39 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 40-49 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 50-99 times on X?No won
- Trump posts less than 10 times on X?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.