Tweets · resolved market
Trump posts 40-49 times on X?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f90baec4738939d421b69fdada5b5a7a5df1d4e30bb1906f98f6ebea2910463
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bda…121bbacked No | 75c | 10,312$7,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,578.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23bf…578bbacked Yes | 25c | 6,456$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,304$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…4a71backed Yes | 8c | 5,254$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 3c | 4,689$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.66 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,196$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…764fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,612$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e00…e541backed Yes | 24c | 1,466$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x251d…2bf4backed Yes | 24c | 1,250$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f8…60acbacked Yes | 1c | 1,149$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cc…04b4backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 22c | 991$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.11 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 3c | 738.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 6c | 650.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 7c | 645.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Yes | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 4c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a43…d871backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed No | 76c | 499.98$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9864…5f30backed Yes | 25c | 328.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +133.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613c…58b5backed Yes | 10c | 240$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 21c | 229.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa850…e2f8backed Yes | 21c | 145.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe7…e766backed Yes | 25c | 116$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 13c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…33c5backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…2418backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…adfdbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…6239backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…511bbacked Yes | 14c | 95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…50f5backed Yes | 25c | 66.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x074b…a249backed Yes | 25c | 59.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…7680backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5977…2136backed Yes | 25c | 45.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…2a02backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae5…1f0ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7719…2deebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3c…1613backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75f…5b1ebacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump posts 40-49 times on X?this page
- Trump posts 10-19 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 100 or more times on X?No won
- Trump posts 20-29 times on X?Yes won
- Trump posts 30-39 times on X?No won
- Trump posts 50-99 times on X?No won
- Trump posts less than 10 times on X?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.