TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Trump posts 10-19 times on X?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$132,989
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,225

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,989 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7bda…121bbacked Yes19c22,824$4,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,328.64666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x108e…d5d0backed Yes25c5,230$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes7c5,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.24850%4 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+244.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4bba…d81fbacked No75c4,245$3,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.06250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-33.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccec…28ffbacked Yes4c3,222$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed Yes0c3,100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Yes3c3,000$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick15cpaid+506.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes8c2,674$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.526224%63 W · 199 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5398…a652backed Yes4c2,415$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+111.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6445…4ec0backed Yes3c2,110$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes10c1,760$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.134134.1%14 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1785…b782backed No64c1,500$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x685e…bb41backed Yes27c1,488$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.985521.8%12 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3da…8100backed Yes46c1,455$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.22812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-82.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76e4…c5aebacked Yes80c1,434$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1471442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes32c1,182$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.692927.6%8 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-49.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bba…9b86backed Yes3c1,130$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.821612.5%2 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-47.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes39c1,100$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70de…db94backed Yes8c1,090$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9410527.6%29 W · 76 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes36c1,000$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.03425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed Yes28c881.22$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.12832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes7c850.03$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8329.4%3 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda58…7ba8backed Yes13c787.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8115511.6%18 W · 137 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes12c781.36$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.684616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf4…7883backed Yes5c776.3$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.95560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+94.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes38c771.27$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.099225%23 W · 69 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f0e…9b75backed Yes3c761.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes40c744.46$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Yes3c729.3$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9660%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9314…1e98backed No76c713.01$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.181241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick65cpaid-44.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf86d…e314backed Yes36c697.91$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+71.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ceb…4790backed Yes33c660.97$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.722020%4 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-50.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes19c651.59$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.65529.6%5 W · 47 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-56%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes9c629.48$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0379735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bda…20ffbacked Yes5c614.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Yes6c599.57$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.26137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab99…7ac1backed Yes31c577.86$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.27147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-86%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c2f…479fbacked Yes7c568.26$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.83450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1820…e3f7backed Yes11c539$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.684841.7%20 W · 28 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf33…0dacbacked Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a38…67a9backed Yes8c500$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.33836.8%14 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8371…06febacked No56c499.32$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94ac…df04backed Yes16c495.29$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ae…d19cbacked Yes22c449.15$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.62035%7 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e00…e541backed Yes36c412.18$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.0540%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x063a…eb4bbacked Yes16c409.64$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.293633.3%12 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+101.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1e4…ad23backed Yes7c402.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc9c…d5c5backed Yes8c400$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63dd…c15fbacked No75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x047f…a10fbacked Yes36c398.88$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed Yes15c392.83$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.133119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08c4…aad3backed Yes11c379.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.56127.9%17 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2387…2a96backed Yes57c361.93$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.85156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick24cpaid-82%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcdfa…d143backed Yes7c349.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd94a…4824backed Yes20c343.88$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+42.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes4c339.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9712814.1%18 W · 110 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9411…271cbacked Yes8c333$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.98742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+55.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6056…7227backed Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes4c268.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.67458.9%4 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+61%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe338…5760backed Yes29c249.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+119.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9864…5f30backed Yes12c249.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.45650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+133.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005435.2%19 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x251d…6c30backed Yes5c216.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f09…b06ebacked No70c214.36$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes17c202.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.872528%7 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9193…c86cbacked Yes38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.67219.5%2 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-63.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes15c189.11$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.74520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9339…ed6fbacked Yes24c176.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.64616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd16b…3330backed Yes7c164.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2518…a4ccbacked No79c149.83$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae5…1f0ebacked Yes34c125.15$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bff…64adbacked Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed Yes29c110$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.42412.5%3 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-51.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8a43…d871backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+181.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac1b…c18cbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaab…d94bbacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-46.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x640b…102abacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f69…9c7abacked Yes15c99.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-46%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea0a…8340backed Yes11c97.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7450%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc995…50f5backed Yes38c95.71$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5db…ee3dbacked Yes17c86.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.77560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick29cpaid+83.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb544…ad87backed No80c74.44$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4430…d489backed No80c74.4$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd941…a1d0backed Yes41c73.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304822.9%11 W · 37 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c35…cef3backed Yes17c70$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x270e…3a59backed No80c66.8$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd857…14afbacked No71c66.37$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.37250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ea…e8b2backed Yes57c65.72$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6540%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf2f…4b5fbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00e6…a474backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.52138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92a0…c6c2backed Yes44c47.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.87366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf38…c330backed Yes54c41.63$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b52…47ccbacked Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+60%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed No65c39.97$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9926112.6%33 W · 228 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-55.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc84c…ce0bbacked No61c32.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes58c30.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.651010%1 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.17540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+72.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed No68c29.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73cf…f716backed Yes38c27.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.