TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0d90…85aa

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
96
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT2045%9 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+42.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$272.44
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$272.43
US forces enter Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.01
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+47.1%+$7.06
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$15.75
Iran strike on Israel by Nov 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST+33.3%+$8.75
Another Iran strike on Israel in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+127%+$76.36
Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+150%+$30
Israel military response against Iran in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$40.64
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT+257.1%+$36
Yahya Sinwar still Hamas leader by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT+310.5%+$102.85
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT+155.3%+$233.98
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$758Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$757.6
Iran military response by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2024, EDT-100%-$159.73
Iran military response by Tuesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Iran military response tonight?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Iran military response by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Iran military response by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$167.41
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2024, EDT+51.2%+$19.69
Israel military action against Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2024, EDT+816%+$359.03
All 20 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST1338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$141.45
Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross more than $300m by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$62
Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $250m-300m by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2024, EDT+122%+$150.15
Will 'Challengers' gross between $16m and $19m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$34.22
Will 'Civil War' gross more than $23m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$506Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2024, EDT+125.4%+$635.12
Will 'Civil War' gross between $20-23m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$320
Will 'Civil War' gross between $17-20m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2024, EDT+29.9%+$69
Will 'Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire' gross between $57.5m-65m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$50
Will Lily Gladstone win the Oscar for Best Actress?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$78.07
Will Anatomy of a Fall win the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2024, EDT+44.9%+$62.9
Will The Holdovers win the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $80m-90m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2024, EST+257.1%+$128.57
Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $70m-80m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2024, EST-100%-$100
All 13 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2025, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arsenal wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.28
Will Leicester City be relegated?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.35
Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$19.04
Real Madrid vs. Atalanta: UEFA Super Cupbacked Real Madrid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2024, EDT+29.9%+$8.28
Colombia wins Copa America 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2024, EDT-100%-$15
Will Switzerland win the 2024 Euros?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$39.22
Will Dortmund win the 2023-24 Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2024, EDT+28.2%+$8.46
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,023Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,023.38
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPLbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2024, EDT+35.4%+$59.4
Will PSG win the 2023-24 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$161.75
Champions League: Man City vs Real Madridbacked Madrid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2024, EDT+98.8%+$211.94
Who will advance: Barcelona or PSG?backed PSG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2024, EDT+291.7%+$349.7
Will PSG win against Barcelona? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2024, EDT-100%-$98
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 23, 2024, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Sid Miller for Agriculture Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2024, EST+33.3%+$16.67
Will Trump nominate Doug Burgum for Energy Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$94
Will Trump nominate RFK Jr. for HHS Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+117.4%+$54
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$15
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$15
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 1-4backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$10
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$20
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$12.75
Trump violates gag order?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2024, EDT+135.2%+$146.05
Will Vermont be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2024, EST+30.5%+$24.04
Will Nikki Haley drop out in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2024, EST-100%-$28
All 11 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2024, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+47.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2024, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2024, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Whittaker vs. Chimaevbacked Chimaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2024, EDT+53.8%+$120.78
UFC 300: Zhang Weili vs Yan Xiaonanbacked Weili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$512Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2024, EDT+26.6%+$136.1
UFC 300: Arman Tsarukyan vs Charles Oliveirabacked Tsarukyan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$372Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2024, EDT+51.5%+$191.89
All 3 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2024, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$519Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$519.36
Bucks vs. Netsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$345Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$345.08
NBA Play-In: Warriors vs Kingsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$118
All 3 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Chess — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win FIDE Candidates 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$296.22
Will Hikaru Nakamura win FIDE Candidates 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$243Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$243
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST+455.6%+$91.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+160.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+160.4%+$30.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine aid package in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2024, EDT+53.8%+$27.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 23, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump posts 50-99 times on X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2024, EDT-100%-$16
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.