Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine aid package in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4dfcc32f0a03aef3c273345a8a9c0cc5680082e03e39aecdd7660c5c90ac15e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 79c | 8,492$6,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,747.88 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 11c | 4,610$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.1 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f2…146ebacked No | 63c | 3,295$2,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,087.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 74c | 3,238$2,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.65 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1687…cfdcbacked No | 38c | 3,017$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 16c | 2,777$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.5 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 30c | 1,378$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +228.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes | 46c | 1,265$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 15c | 921.43$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.14 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x539f…cdcfbacked No | 21c | 650.48$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed No | 15c | 585.59$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 54c | 550$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3756…ed8cbacked No | 10c | 523.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…033cbacked No | 67c | 509.23$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 10c | 483.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x678f…fe66backed No | 68c | 413.15$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…93e7backed Yes | 40c | 400$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705f…3fcfbacked Yes | 26c | 387.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 56c | 326.47$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.75 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed No | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed No | 7c | 238.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 32c | 202.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d1…1582backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…ed4fbacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed No | 7c | 188.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 57c | 174.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a71…3c62backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7f…b752backed No | 57c | 102.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c5…9256backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked No | 38c | 99.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b37…6962backed Yes | 64c | 94.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…b053backed No | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Yes | 65c | 79.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d20…75e0backed Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4b…ac55backed No | 75c | 66.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb7…692cbacked No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe786…f1eabacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66cd…7b7ebacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e65…0661backed No | 53c | 35.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09be…7b37backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 53c | 23.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 69 | 71%49 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.