Music · resolved market
Top 10 songs on Billboard all from Taylor Swift?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7ce868b62f0d92a97f5093dc5c901f5b6f4780a9bea68aeea475a11f352d2e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 10c | 4,427$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.6 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed No | 25c | 2,797$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e83…beb5backed No | 0c | 2,705$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b76…1573backed No | 1c | 2,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…0ac5backed No | 12c | 2,250$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…19fcbacked No | 31c | 1,359$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed No | 2c | 1,311$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 13cpaid | +269.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 66c | 993.01$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.39 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345b…9f2ebacked No | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked Yes | 76c | 797$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +290.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 43c | 766$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…c081backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +163.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09cb…218ebacked No | 30c | 476.67$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked No | 42c | 400$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 4c | 364.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x467b…a409backed No | 32c | 359.17$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed No | 52c | 300$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c5…923dbacked No | 29c | 231.66$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd867…1256backed No | 5c | 228$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa453…1eb4backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec9…56e8backed No | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833b…ad28backed No | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…e22fbacked No | 48c | 64.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4a…0291backed No | 22c | 46.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bb…ea96backed No | 40c | 45.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66cd…7b7ebacked No | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.