Middle East · resolved market
Iran strike on Israel by Nov 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc83128531d31cc5e5b3ca1f0065f39f6f88047d0905ae2a0ae94d9be1eec2aa5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $788,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $629,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $788,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 354 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47db…19b4backed Yes | 4c | 57,295$2,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,331.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5afa…cafbbacked Yes | 9c | 32,260$3,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,047.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fc…8b32backed Yes | 8c | 31,707$2,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,465.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +318.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x381a…f2bfbacked Yes | 13c | 30,799$3,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,927.41 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 49cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0481…0954backed Yes | 4c | 26,685$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…dc6dbacked Yes | 6c | 25,780$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +173.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed No | 75c | 23,652$17,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,964.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2f11backed Yes | 4c | 23,245$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ca…54b1backed Yes | 5c | 19,046$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46e0…d69abacked Yes | 22c | 15,898$3,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,522.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4444…c4fbbacked Yes | 10c | 14,179$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…e5dabacked Yes | 7c | 14,071$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 3c | 12,840$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.43 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…9680backed Yes | 3c | 12,158$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.74 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…76febacked Yes | 0c | 11,455$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 4c | 11,436$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.68 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0745…d6f9backed Yes | 29c | 10,975$3,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,190.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 1c | 8,489$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b64…9832backed Yes | 25c | 8,342$2,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,119.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…9911backed Yes | 23c | 8,342$1,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,929.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 5c | 8,230$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.87 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 4c | 7,685$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.64 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 22c | 7,102$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.04 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…2339backed No | 76c | 6,547$4,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584.71 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 6c | 6,198$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.65 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31fe…fceebacked Yes | 33c | 6,066$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60f…b6f9backed Yes | 4c | 5,415$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c8…c493backed Yes | 23c | 5,201$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.77 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,935$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.21 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139d…fe64backed Yes | 4c | 4,498$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.07 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceb0…8d90backed Yes | 23c | 4,346$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…6d62backed No | 76c | 4,219$3,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.31 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ec…ce12backed Yes | 4c | 4,171$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -63%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48a…dad5backed Yes | 13c | 4,117$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb511…83b6backed Yes | 26c | 3,779$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 3,745$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 15c | 3,742$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.1 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…d32ebacked Yes | 18c | 3,662$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.75 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcab8…29f3backed Yes | 4c | 3,577$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.62 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed No | 78c | 3,273$2,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.05 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,269$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fef…cdcbbacked Yes | 21c | 2,974$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…01efbacked Yes | 30c | 2,833$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.85 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2713…66eabacked Yes | 22c | 2,644$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 21c | 2,595$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf311…fe1bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,506$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e25…814abacked Yes | 16c | 2,500$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…895fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6df…cfa0backed Yes | 20c | 2,489$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.56 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 19c | 2,431$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.61 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x25f8…c282backed Yes | 18c | 2,384$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +181%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 16c | 2,377$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.18 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4780…348ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,357$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed Yes | 20c | 2,349$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.42 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13b2…3ca2backed Yes | 4c | 2,269$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes | 13c | 2,164$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.27 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801b…4055backed Yes | 22c | 2,140$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 78c | 2,000$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.99 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…475abacked Yes | 17c | 1,955$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 13c | 1,874$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.79 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2372…8881backed Yes | 9c | 1,774$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.89 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…c1cebacked Yes | 21c | 1,694$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…572cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,560$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 17c | 1,550$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f55…b310backed Yes | 3c | 1,512$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596f…69c4backed Yes | 4c | 1,342$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 18c | 1,334$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.34 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…de46backed Yes | 19c | 1,320$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.8 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,305$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x004d…665bbacked No | 77c | 1,300$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…0c42backed Yes | 4c | 1,256$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…7c5cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,253$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.14 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,247$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…0626backed No | 25c | 1,247$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7e…2c41backed Yes | 4c | 1,243$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd00…e43ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,215$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 5c | 1,210$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1729…61a6backed Yes | 4c | 1,205$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 20c | 1,142$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.87 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…dbdfbacked Yes | 22c | 1,140$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd052…1bb9backed Yes | 21c | 1,138$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…7696backed No | 76c | 1,120$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +291.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b85…45f8backed Yes | 20c | 1,101$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb95…6da1backed No | 75c | 1,050$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf316…a48bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,027$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ac…2287backed Yes | 20c | 1,026$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3587…e701backed Yes | 21c | 1,023$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…804dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,016$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.25 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed No | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x058b…0e24backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +159.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fa…df8abacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked No | 74c | 999.99$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…9483backed Yes | 18c | 999.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes | 16c | 912.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 75c | 901.04$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.26 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…23d7backed Yes | 22c | 893.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda59…d4b6backed Yes | 3c | 866.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…1045backed Yes | 6c | 845.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…d297backed Yes | 19c | 822.41$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16b…d883backed Yes | 19c | 822.25$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.1 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.