TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran strike on Israel by Nov 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$788,895
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$629,228

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $788,895 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 354 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x47db…19b4backed Yes4c57,295$2,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,331.12728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5afa…cafbbacked Yes9c32,260$3,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,047.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fc…8b32backed Yes8c31,707$2,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,465.92650%3 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+318.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x381a…f2bfbacked Yes13c30,799$3,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,927.41887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.39per pick49cpaid+111.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0481…0954backed Yes4c26,685$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.31728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid+109.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3373…dc6dbacked Yes6c25,780$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+173.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed No75c23,652$17,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,964.23243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdab0…2f11backed Yes4c23,245$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29ca…54b1backed Yes5c19,046$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.24837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46e0…d69abacked Yes22c15,898$3,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,522.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4444…c4fbbacked Yes10c14,179$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.32837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+65.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e5dabacked Yes7c14,071$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes3c12,840$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.437311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7667…9680backed Yes3c12,158$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.741216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd46b…76febacked Yes0c11,455$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.631136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes4c11,436$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.688725.3%22 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0745…d6f9backed Yes29c10,975$3,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,190.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes1c8,489$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.331612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-67%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b64…9832backed Yes25c8,342$2,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.43540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabbd…9911backed Yes23c8,342$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,929.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes5c8,230$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.876023.3%14 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes4c7,685$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.6428427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes22c7,102$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.045121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x054b…2339backed No76c6,547$4,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,584.712445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes6c6,198$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.6556336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x31fe…fceebacked Yes33c6,066$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf60f…b6f9backed Yes4c5,415$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.53922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9c8…c493backed Yes23c5,201$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.771030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+72.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes3c4,935$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.2135819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x139d…fe64backed Yes4c4,498$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.076615.2%10 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xceb0…8d90backed Yes23c4,346$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8081…6d62backed No76c4,219$3,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024.312552%13 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ec…ce12backed Yes4c4,171$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.57714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-63%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb48a…dad5backed Yes13c4,117$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.4650%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb511…83b6backed Yes26c3,779$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c3,745$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7277636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes15c3,742$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.16420.3%13 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe371…d32ebacked Yes18c3,662$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.753716.2%6 W · 31 L-5.6wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-66.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcab8…29f3backed Yes4c3,577$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.621435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+50.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed No78c3,273$2,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.052157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes2c3,269$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.634628.3%13 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fef…cdcbbacked Yes21c2,974$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9622…01efbacked Yes30c2,833$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.852748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2713…66eabacked Yes22c2,644$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.71145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed Yes21c2,595$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.67742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf311…fe1bbacked Yes10c2,506$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e25…814abacked Yes16c2,500$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.9980%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb2a…895fbacked Yes1c2,500$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.51513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-79.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6df…cfa0backed Yes20c2,489$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.562937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-31.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes19c2,431$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.6136750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x25f8…c282backed Yes18c2,384$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.05837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+181%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc369…4e87backed Yes16c2,377$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.18726.9%5 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4780…348ebacked Yes18c2,357$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.18616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18b0…2354backed Yes20c2,349$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.425736.8%21 W · 36 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13b2…3ca2backed Yes4c2,269$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes13c2,164$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.271915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-64.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x801b…4055backed Yes22c2,140$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No78c2,000$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.9928750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3507…475abacked Yes17c1,955$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes13c1,874$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.7940433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2372…8881backed Yes9c1,774$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.891127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…c1cebacked Yes21c1,694$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x240d…572cbacked Yes6c1,560$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes17c1,550$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26916651.2%85 W · 81 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f55…b310backed Yes3c1,512$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3730%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x596f…69c4backed Yes4c1,342$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb273…aa63backed Yes18c1,334$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.347423%17 W · 57 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe410…de46backed Yes19c1,320$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.82615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Yes22c1,305$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.1280%0 W · 8 L-3.8wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x004d…665bbacked No77c1,300$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2991163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xace2…0c42backed Yes4c1,256$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b22…7c5cbacked Yes19c1,253$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.141827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-25.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes8c1,247$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.76520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-74.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2583…0626backed No25c1,247$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.15966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+71.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f7e…2c41backed Yes4c1,243$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd00…e43ebacked Yes6c1,215$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes5c1,210$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8213033.1%43 W · 87 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1729…61a6backed Yes4c1,205$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes20c1,142$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.8720823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dbb…dbdfbacked Yes22c1,140$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.47933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+23.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd052…1bb9backed Yes21c1,138$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2391040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f41…7696backed No76c1,120$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.25666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+291.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b85…45f8backed Yes20c1,101$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb95…6da1backed No75c1,050$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf316…a48bbacked Yes4c1,027$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6ac…2287backed Yes20c1,026$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3587…e701backed Yes21c1,023$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57fe…804dbacked Yes18c1,016$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.25137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-66.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed No67c1,000$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3303759.5%22 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x058b…0e24backed Yes16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick29cpaid+159.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9fa…df8abacked Yes22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+47.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9529…7c6abacked No74c999.99$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2602536%9 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x252d…9483backed Yes18c999.99$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+39.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked Yes16c912.55$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.881154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked No75c901.04$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.262055%11 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb251…23d7backed Yes22c893.91$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-44.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda59…d4b6backed Yes3c866.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa357…1045backed Yes6c845.07$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.431435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf45…d297backed Yes19c822.41$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe16b…d883backed Yes19c822.25$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.12540%10 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.