TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Vermont be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,846
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$103,732

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,846 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes70c10,027$7,019 inWon+$3,0087740.3%31 W · 46 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fd3…d54abacked Yes76c2,955$2,250 inWon+$705.13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-56.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes71c2,613$1,867 inWon+$746.167458.1%43 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6261…7ce4backed Yes72c2,156$1,552 inWon+$604.84742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+60.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf155…2e19backed Yes69c1,922$1,335 inWon+$587.381811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-68.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes71c1,700$1,207 inWon+$493366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+35.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d64…8501backed Yes73c1,112$812 inWon+$300.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa922…0abebacked Yes73c500$365 inWon+$135560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+106%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No29c426.67$122 inLost-$1228058.8%47 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed No27c400$108 inLost-$1089829.6%29 W · 69 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes73c399$291 inWon+$108.37133.8%24 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes76c357.25$272 inWon+$85.742642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3098…568abacked Yes73c262.92$192 inWon+$70.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc97d…732bbacked No28c200$56 inLost-$561931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f53…fa57backed Yes71c170$121 inWon+$49.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+92.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd279…e09dbacked Yes71c164.79$117 inWon+$47.79580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fed…ba15backed Yes71c140.85$100 inWon+$40.85757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+45.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d90…85aabacked Yes77c102.87$79 inWon+$24.041136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1088…b813backed Yes62c100$62 inWon+$38.57724.7%19 W · 58 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-41.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes72c50$36 inWon+$142839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c45…1635backed Yes76c45.2$34 inWon+$10.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f19…a8f7backed No31c33.1$10 inLost-$10.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5bd…f330backed No32c31.25$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f70…ed54backed Yes71c28.17$20 inWon+$8.172100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.