Us Politics · resolved market
Will Massachusetts be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bc44e3e0f5796fefb68b3866832f045503fc83bcc3b15089f0a83fa27cdb79a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2d5…2884backed Yes | 14c | 2,242$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…8501backed Yes | 10c | 1,110$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 13c | 440$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 13c | 357.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1332…deacbacked Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 12c | 115.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ca…bb25backed Yes | 12c | 115$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 13c | 100.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Massachusetts be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?this page
- Will Alabama be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?No won
- Will Alaska be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?No won
- Will Arkansas be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?No won
- Will California be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?No won
- Will Colorado be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?No won
- Will Maine be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?No won
- Will Minnesota be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?No won
- Will Tennesse be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?No won
- Will Utah be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?No won
- Will Vermont be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?Yes won
- Will Virginia be Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.