TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran military response by Tuesday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$163,511
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$163,579

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,511 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9d84…1344backed Yes14c16,736$2,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,356.5226423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9314…1e98backed No70c13,539$9,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,033.361163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes35c10,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499.974214.3%6 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes3c9,267$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.38329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-77.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4117…bf12backed Yes3c8,446$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.3840%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed No74c6,417$4,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,667.813243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1189…a9e0backed Yes16c5,998$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.28185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-92.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2736…3625backed Yes10c5,031$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.63714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-78.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes34c4,247$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,462.431127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x105b…08f0backed Yes40c2,984$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.61714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21dc…3c76backed Yes14c2,798$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3801020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-60.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes37c2,756$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.891643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb011…2d13backed No66c2,734$1,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.242138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x984f…9debbacked No72c2,171$1,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.272100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes10c2,148$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.611723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes35c2,100$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.2410150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4828…ddd9backed Yes21c2,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4201560%9 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+115.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes13c1,818$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.9814724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2494…9f7dbacked Yes29c1,776$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec8…96a5backed No65c1,614$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5705644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb363…4c60backed No65c1,541$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3921…0cf4backed Yes32c1,517$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.02837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed No67c1,517$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.932259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6cf…ce63backed Yes13c1,504$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa431…677fbacked Yes31c1,433$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.251520%3 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9817…28bcbacked Yes14c1,382$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Yes10c1,200$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.524129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c6…b942backed Yes21c1,086$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.711127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d1…75e8backed Yes27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80bf…e42ebacked Yes35c930.11$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.541421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-58.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1af7…cd2dbacked Yes30c870.96$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.05425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-65.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8194…ed51backed Yes29c855$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dd6…16c6backed Yes12c809.17$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes30c807.04$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.83141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes35c807$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.4551138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8272…14bbbacked Yes4c800$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-64.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9a…2edabacked Yes28c721$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5562…79a3backed Yes12c701.72$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.12757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes23c666$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.969815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdca0…8580backed Yes14c653.09$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce4…75cebacked Yes11c650.45$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x664c…9ec8backed Yes39c642$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.3820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cb1…3a07backed No67c616$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaa2…93ccbacked No65c615.38$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.384100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+64.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc922…bf70backed Yes15c609.85$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.851428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe0…f2a8backed No71c600$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1731323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-67.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf647…c13ebacked Yes14c587.71$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9363…6acbbacked No76c572.01$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca9d…07f7backed No67c557.07$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.81633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-51.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb54b…9750backed Yes4c514.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c03…8b7bbacked Yes32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-39.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes28c500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes13c493.72$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.152825%7 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1463…b1bdbacked Yes47c418.55$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.6340%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x529a…555bbacked Yes5c407.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39ee…f180backed No75c399.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7de…caa8backed No75c399.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c43…b289backed No63c395.94$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.94666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+27.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x015c…6f19backed No77c389.29$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No77c388.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.739831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed No62c385.83$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.832347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90de…0a6dbacked No59c373.26$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.14955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b8…dcfdbacked Yes11c366.85$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1459…ab65backed No64c364.69$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.321070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x253f…edf9backed No63c349.25$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.251752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3168…6734backed Yes25c349.06$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.363540%14 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc9…148ebacked Yes32c310.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fd8…741bbacked No64c310.25$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.29666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1233…4e0fbacked Yes49c306.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1820…e3f7backed No68c303.13$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.53850%19 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Yes30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90339.1%3 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-47.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4e91…b801backed No59c300$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1232759.3%16 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+69.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x68f2…006dbacked Yes27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b1…63b0backed Yes12c299.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3640%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xacbe…0a64backed Yes4c297.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4094…2ec9backed Yes7c274.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c91…1971backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13d2…7019backed No73c250$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick70cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0ee…ec14backed No61c240.02$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.868951.7%46 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7789…f823backed Yes27c240$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.81368.3%3 W · 33 L-6.3wins-0.18per pick26cpaid-87%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xabe9…4424backed Yes10c240$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242236.4%8 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed Yes31c229.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.98844.3%39 W · 49 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+42.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8016…9894backed No77c229.99$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a4…647abacked Yes32c211.41$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e66…8c05backed Yes35c208$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6490%0 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No65c207.91$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.945143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2c8…770dbacked No64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-15.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x51b6…ed4fbacked No61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb94…649ebacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8673…88a0backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb25e…6f70backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Yes36c188.62$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.91553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc2…e30ebacked Yes7c180$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc405…4affbacked No65c170.62$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.723748.6%18 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5574…6424backed No60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.67540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf40a…8114backed No63c160$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+27%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1293…9587backed Yes13c159.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2259…cba4backed Yes10c156.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd14c…76e2backed Yes32c155.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.