Premier League · resolved market
Champions League: Man City vs Real Madrid
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d44d9b88f3f9fc549b952c796d39ba0c4da416c3d431459e8937b79e47c8ab0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Madridof Man City, Madrid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07ad…4c0cbacked Man City | 74c | 2,800$2,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Madrid | 26c | 1,456$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.42 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Madrid | 28c | 1,167$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.41 | 183 | 62.3%114 W · 69 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…c283backed Madrid | 27c | 925.93$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed Madrid | 28c | 706.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.84 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Madrid | 28c | 600$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Madrid | 50c | 426.36$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.94 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Man City | 72c | 373.73$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.92 | 168 | 48.8%82 W · 86 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeac6…d0b8backed Madrid | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 35cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a1…d9bbbacked Madrid | 27c | 370.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +293.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Man City | 71c | 338.33$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.29 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Madrid | 26c | 300$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa453…1eb4backed Man City | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Madrid | 28c | 252.4$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Man City | 73c | 248.49$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.39 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Man City | 36c | 207.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.11 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c5…923dbacked Man City | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Madrid | 27c | 195.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.03 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…ad6bbacked Madrid | 27c | 133.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223b…8a70backed Madrid | 27c | 107.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1e…ba37backed Man City | 73c | 95.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…be0dbacked Madrid | 29c | 75.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Man City | 71c | 47.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed Man City | 74c | 27.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Man City | 64c | 26.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.