Movies · resolved market
Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross more than $300m by May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x248c40cd0ea1a87d649f478b39f565b97999507ae9a5eb4655ac66caf67db8e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $180,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4aff…c594backed Yes | 10c | 10,688$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a09…abe5backed Yes | 11c | 6,975$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc81…a6a5backed Yes | 11c | 6,109$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked Yes | 5c | 5,546$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…99ebbacked Yes | 5c | 4,749$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6f…726ebacked Yes | 10c | 4,666$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.38 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 13c | 3,911$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.9 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes | 12c | 3,503$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d21…5566backed Yes | 8c | 2,738$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,491$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.86 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…1045backed Yes | 10c | 2,296$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.89 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked Yes | 18c | 2,024$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.8 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9b…bb78backed Yes | 1c | 1,950$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…a73cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,837$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f9…0021backed Yes | 13c | 1,705$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 10c | 1,615$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,590$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,199$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…2249backed Yes | 22c | 907.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 7c | 804.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb74…82aebacked Yes | 12c | 730$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…3c92backed Yes | 13c | 575.64$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19be…f052backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 10c | 500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 7c | 462.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3409…2ae7backed Yes | 19c | 429.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Yes | 15c | 426.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 6c | 383.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…c50bbacked Yes | 8c | 333.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…df8ebacked Yes | 9c | 310.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Yes | 12c | 243.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09a4…9db0backed Yes | 22c | 240.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7f…7215backed Yes | 11c | 219.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…dfc8backed Yes | 8c | 212.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 17cpaid | +208.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2c…ca76backed Yes | 24c | 208.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fa…ec7cbacked Yes | 14c | 183.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc76d…121ebacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…fefbbacked Yes | 30c | 108.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2a…6fd1backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…1194backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6849…58c8backed Yes | 18c | 70.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc6…54d3backed Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross more than $300m by May 15?this page
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $200m-250m by May 15?No won
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $250m-300m by May 15?Yes won
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross less than $200m by May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.