Weather · resolved market
Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $364,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $427,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $364,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 62c | 19,308$11,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,366.79 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 28c | 15,103$4,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,943.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 77c | 8,659$6,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,029.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 26c | 7,000$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,149.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 21cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 5c | 6,095$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.97 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d5…6f6abacked No | 66c | 4,352$2,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,889.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 44c | 4,114$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,286.63 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 24c | 3,800$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,901.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d36…e7aebacked Yes | 80c | 3,600$2,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…a83cbacked Yes | 48c | 3,588$1,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,862.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed No | 15c | 3,195$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.62 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…3687backed Yes | 68c | 2,818$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 8c | 2,264$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.63 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 38c | 2,192$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.49 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 77c | 1,393$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.99 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed No | 2c | 1,303$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…6efbbacked Yes | 80c | 1,131$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 72c | 1,111$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 23c | 1,019$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x776d…6e36backed No | 3c | 1,018$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 34c | 963.82$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.61 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e72…3e8dbacked Yes | 22c | 927.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…aba6backed Yes | 34c | 874$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked No | 72c | 845.4$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.69 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 63c | 805$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa3…dc66backed No | 22c | 700$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked No | 73c | 669.06$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9186…9220backed Yes | 30c | 600$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2440backed No | 9c | 578.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200a…d498backed Yes | 70c | 524.43$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…102abacked Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…f6b5backed No | 10c | 495.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed Yes | 15c | 469.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +242.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b71…35cabacked Yes | 34c | 450$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe714…bd2dbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a8…0106backed Yes | 37c | 358$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 19c | 345.47$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…a88dbacked Yes | 73c | 342.47$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…a67ebacked Yes | 59c | 339$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 38c | 308.11$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…1682backed Yes | 10c | 306.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +705.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x238c…1b98backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked No | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed Yes | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec4…673ebacked No | 30c | 287.51$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…02edbacked Yes | 40c | 261.76$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +149.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed Yes | 37c | 250$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed No | 45c | 223.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5c…5d56backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3270…e1afbacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed No | 19c | 188.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc633…2c04backed No | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed Yes | 35c | 178.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadae…061ebacked No | 29c | 158.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f5…7551backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed Yes | 76c | 147.89$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe915…f3bfbacked Yes | 37c | 135.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…b005backed Yes | 26c | 129.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 13c | 119.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 12c | 114.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 16c | 113.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…9832backed No | 36c | 99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked No | 22c | 98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…e1a1backed Yes | 76c | 89.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb7…e288backed No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…925fbacked Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4092…1920backed No | 30c | 76.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e40…41aabacked Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…a4c2backed Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…6514backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6588…d868backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a73…28cfbacked Yes | 40c | 44.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb84…a22cbacked Yes | 70c | 36.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf77e…2c60backed Yes | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc01…a2dfbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4774…01a7backed Yes | 70c | 29.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039f…4b53backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985a…92ffbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2364…54a4backed Yes | 70c | 27.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2027backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…61febacked Yes | 71c | 25.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…1ab5backed No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 68c | 21.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…6e17backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…a6b5backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfb…3a9bbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c6…641abacked Yes | 69c | 19.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdc…94eabacked Yes | 69c | 19.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…bfa4backed Yes | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…2220backed Yes | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?this page
- Will there be between 21 and 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?No won
- Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?No won
- Will there be more than 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.