Weather · resolved market
Will there be more than 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $711,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $382,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $711,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 2c | 71,825$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.86 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 1c | 52,852$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.94 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 30,272$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 27,771$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.55 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 4c | 21,174$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 17,479$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.51 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 14c | 12,995$1,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.29 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…0455backed Yes | 0c | 11,739$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…2bedbacked Yes | 0c | 11,539$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc871…b860backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b9…ff97backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 2c | 9,694$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 21cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…c109backed Yes | 0c | 9,544$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f6…a773backed No | 59c | 7,351$4,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,983.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…3687backed Yes | 4c | 6,241$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…f6b5backed Yes | 0c | 5,510$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 3c | 5,275$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397f…54e9backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…9ed6backed Yes | 0c | 3,949$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 48c | 3,828$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.05 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc733…6293backed Yes | 11c | 3,100$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,941$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e9…7c9fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,436$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…5733backed Yes | 2c | 2,270$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d5…6f6abacked No | 66c | 2,261$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 11c | 2,101$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.59 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,791$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5335…0b0fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,735$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,393$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…6514backed Yes | 9c | 1,116$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…11edbacked Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2182…4fe0backed Yes | 2c | 753.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 73c | 606.14$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked No | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…73ccbacked No | 69c | 600$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 50c | 595$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…a88dbacked Yes | 10c | 510.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed No | 63c | 496.78$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 4c | 495.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b71…35cabacked Yes | 4c | 449.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed No | 61c | 431.62$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9186…9220backed Yes | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae2…07a7backed No | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd9…f622backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73bb…6161backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked Yes | 35c | 239.6$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…0df4backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…b005backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…57c0backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…35d2backed Yes | 41c | 167.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb7…e288backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed No | 58c | 131.25$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf271…1157backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf78…7723backed Yes | 45c | 46.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd857…14afbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be more than 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?this page
- Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?Yes won
- Will there be between 21 and 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?No won
- Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.