Weather · resolved market
Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,618,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,817,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,618,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 726 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 0c | 47,990$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 70c | 22,897$16,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,069.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d5…6f6abacked Yes | 22c | 19,241$4,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,163.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked No | 28c | 15,095$4,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,891.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 21cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa919…ad9dbacked Yes | 17c | 14,541$2,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,442.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked No | 23c | 13,000$3,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,994.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 19c | 12,933$2,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,469.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 54c | 11,837$6,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,433.75 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4a…d456backed No | 20c | 11,158$2,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,926.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf65…56f5backed Yes | 13c | 10,790$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed Yes | 69c | 10,198$7,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,037.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2c…68b6backed Yes | 63c | 9,910$6,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,264.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81dc…0c76backed Yes | 22c | 9,753$2,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,145.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22d…a2ccbacked Yes | 23c | 9,753$2,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,213.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb016…9c0ebacked Yes | 22c | 9,753$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,174.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf014…a9a2backed Yes | 21c | 9,752$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…79edbacked Yes | 20c | 9,752$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,979.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…5e01backed Yes | 22c | 9,752$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,174.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…f744backed Yes | 20c | 9,752$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,969.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e0…5929backed Yes | 22c | 9,752$2,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,145.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…72b8backed Yes | 23c | 9,752$2,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,223.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5435…40a5backed Yes | 22c | 9,752$2,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,164.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…6bb7backed Yes | 21c | 9,752$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,008.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d9…d9debacked Yes | 22c | 9,752$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,174.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…25f0backed Yes | 21c | 9,752$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…93fabacked Yes | 21c | 9,752$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,028.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…0d19backed Yes | 21c | 9,752$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7c…b4a8backed Yes | 19c | 9,752$1,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,891.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0215…7d47backed Yes | 22c | 9,752$2,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,155.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783e…fb1abacked Yes | 23c | 9,752$2,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,203.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…2b1abacked Yes | 20c | 9,752$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8898…a196backed Yes | 20c | 9,752$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…7fe2backed Yes | 21c | 9,752$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3035…3c4ebacked Yes | 21c | 9,752$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,008.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bb…f3ccbacked Yes | 23c | 9,752$2,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,194.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8c…52f4backed Yes | 20c | 9,752$1,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,911.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb99…671ebacked Yes | 20c | 9,752$1,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,969.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…438dbacked Yes | 22c | 9,752$2,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,184.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99af…12b4backed Yes | 20c | 9,751$1,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,930.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad44…4d72backed Yes | 20c | 9,751$1,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,901.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…20e3backed Yes | 20c | 9,751$1,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,901.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bc…ffd1backed Yes | 23c | 9,751$2,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,242.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…fba3backed Yes | 20c | 9,751$1,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,901.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28f…c63dbacked Yes | 20c | 9,751$1,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af9…faf5backed No | 19c | 9,721$1,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,854.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +420.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeed…8448backed No | 21c | 9,721$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,718.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +385.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf823…3738backed No | 20c | 9,721$1,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,805.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +407.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31f6…6814backed No | 20c | 9,721$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,795.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +405%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ca…2e0cbacked No | 20c | 9,721$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,776.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93aa…61c4backed No | 20c | 9,720$1,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,756.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +395%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…2b7bbacked No | 21c | 9,720$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,717.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +385.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5164…cb2bbacked No | 23c | 9,720$2,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,488.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +335.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x163c…1bcdbacked No | 19c | 9,720$1,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,863.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +423.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb602…4c78backed No | 17c | 9,720$1,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,048.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +481.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53df…5a10backed No | 19c | 9,720$1,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,902.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +434.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9651…c94dbacked No | 17c | 9,719$1,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,027.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +474.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…463cbacked No | 18c | 9,719$1,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,018.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 18cpaid | +471.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d1…8859backed No | 18c | 9,719$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,998.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +465%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f3…be60backed No | 17c | 9,719$1,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,037.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +478%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfb…c72dbacked No | 18c | 9,719$1,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,018.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 18cpaid | +471.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…e43fbacked No | 18c | 9,719$1,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,930.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +443.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…05c9backed No | 18c | 9,719$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,989.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +461.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…e5adbacked No | 18c | 9,719$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,988.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +461.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e3…77a9backed No | 18c | 9,719$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,979.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +458.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df1…99c5backed No | 18c | 9,719$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,008.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +468.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e0…16e2backed No | 18c | 9,719$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,950.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +449.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe67…b04abacked No | 18c | 9,719$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,950.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +449.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f9…cac9backed No | 18c | 9,719$1,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,940.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +446.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…7027backed No | 18c | 9,719$1,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,930.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +443.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef00…15d8backed No | 18c | 9,719$1,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,008.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +468.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c0…48b7backed No | 18c | 9,718$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,968.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…a147backed No | 18c | 9,714$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,965.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8825…648cbacked No | 20c | 9,714$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,790.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…cbc8backed No | 18c | 9,713$1,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,935.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +446.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…9070backed No | 21c | 9,713$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,712.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +385.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2991…d473backed No | 18c | 9,713$1,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,003.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +468.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…647bbacked No | 21c | 9,713$2,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,634.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +367.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4a…5320backed No | 18c | 9,713$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,954.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +452.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5e…a246backed No | 20c | 9,713$1,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,818.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +412.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bc…b67ebacked No | 19c | 9,713$1,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,906.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +437.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x761c…4e6ebacked No | 20c | 9,713$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,789.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…5634backed No | 18c | 9,713$1,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,993.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +465%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef81…9d9cbacked No | 18c | 9,713$1,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,984.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +461.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdb…cbc8backed No | 17c | 9,712$1,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,051.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +484.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0c…b421backed No | 18c | 9,712$1,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,983.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +461.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe25…2e9ebacked No | 19c | 9,712$1,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,915.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 19cpaid | +440.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…1109backed No | 20c | 9,712$1,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,818.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +412.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7905…be49backed No | 18c | 9,711$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,011.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 18cpaid | +471.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…25a7backed No | 18c | 9,711$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,953.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +452.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x863f…159fbacked No | 18c | 9,710$1,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,981.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +461.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de7…e741backed Yes | 12c | 9,706$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…1789backed Yes | 13c | 9,706$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6816…b4afbacked Yes | 15c | 9,705$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ac…ce1dbacked Yes | 13c | 9,705$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24b6…3d80backed Yes | 13c | 9,704$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa846…125abacked Yes | 13c | 9,704$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8451…0ae0backed Yes | 12c | 9,704$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ca…5821backed Yes | 23c | 9,703$2,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,252.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…9adcbacked Yes | 23c | 9,703$2,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,251.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee7…bc0abacked Yes | 12c | 9,703$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?this page
- Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?Yes won
- Will there be between 21 and 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?No won
- Will there be more than 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.