Weather · resolved market
Will there be between 21 and 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $549,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $404,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $549,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 4c | 86,593$3,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,621.32 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 12c | 28,373$3,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,489.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 24,104$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.27 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 5c | 21,997$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.42 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 3c | 20,202$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 21cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad9a…3f5cbacked Yes | 6c | 19,400$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 18,646$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.19 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 2c | 16,931$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d5…6f6abacked Yes | 4c | 16,509$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 3c | 14,500$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0d…38a1backed Yes | 6c | 11,405$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 11c | 10,158$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 9c | 9,905$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 13c | 8,479$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c6…95e9backed Yes | 1c | 5,114$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f4…dbfebacked Yes | 7c | 5,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 7c | 4,670$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.27 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 4,631$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…2bacbacked Yes | 7c | 4,350$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed Yes | 8c | 3,820$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397f…54e9backed Yes | 1c | 3,567$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 3c | 3,467$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…aba6backed Yes | 10c | 3,452$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…3687backed Yes | 4c | 3,010$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.59 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Yes | 25c | 2,730$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 2,384$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd3…d54abacked Yes | 6c | 1,763$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 8c | 1,606$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.84 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 7c | 1,471$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,393$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.51 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebd…6fd0backed Yes | 1c | 1,070$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…e97dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,051$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8f…4a0fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,024$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…8805backed Yes | 3c | 1,020$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f9…2301backed Yes | 5c | 1,007$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b3…7469backed No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 30c | 927.87$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2440backed Yes | 5c | 910.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 850$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…6514backed Yes | 13c | 842.59$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.14 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 5c | 770.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0b…8da5backed Yes | 4c | 766.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…5733backed Yes | 5c | 738.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e72…3e8dbacked Yes | 29c | 698$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb6…e94ebacked Yes | 3c | 689.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6258…9d60backed Yes | 1c | 677.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 674.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…9a73backed Yes | 2c | 662.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 12c | 630.86$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed Yes | 10c | 580$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…d5c5backed Yes | 17c | 577.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…50fabacked Yes | 8c | 514.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…09fcbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…102abacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b71…35cabacked Yes | 12c | 450$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d16…598bbacked Yes | 5c | 408.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Yes | 7c | 400$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9186…9220backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd9…f622backed Yes | 26c | 386.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…61febacked Yes | 5c | 377.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 10c | 305$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…e1a1backed Yes | 13c | 292.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked Yes | 7c | 266.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed No | 74c | 255.79$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a1…bdd4backed Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Yes | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 246.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…825ebacked Yes | 6c | 231.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…3a51backed Yes | 6c | 220.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ef…ceb9backed Yes | 5c | 218.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072b…9c82backed Yes | 12c | 210$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9e…0a21backed Yes | 10c | 203.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked No | 70c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…a88dbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed Yes | 6c | 181.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7e…80c2backed Yes | 9c | 169.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0989…4d83backed Yes | 6c | 156.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…d900backed Yes | 10c | 153.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f5…7551backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…6600backed Yes | 31c | 147$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf56…9ffbbacked Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…1d0abacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed Yes | 36c | 108$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…6e17backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…7f4fbacked Yes | 34c | 99.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce8…9260backed Yes | 35c | 90.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d3…fe5dbacked Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x359a…deacbacked Yes | 34c | 88.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf271…1157backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 21 and 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?this page
- Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?Yes won
- Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?No won
- Will there be more than 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.