World Politics · resolved market
Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c6e44d7e9a6a873955eb1cc9805cdc765cd7ca4230c3f1a12e7ec2aa6ef0fdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $185,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $183,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb37b…cb67backed Yes | 5c | 100,000$4,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,931.91 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed Yes | 9c | 7,431$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.03 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes | 8c | 4,391$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49db…2019backed Yes | 2c | 3,761$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…3546backed Yes | 7c | 3,573$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…ea33backed Yes | 6c | 2,333$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3db…2467backed Yes | 4c | 2,172$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7f…654cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,960$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…88a3backed Yes | 4c | 1,675$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 8c | 1,413$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.32 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Yes | 3c | 1,300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b9…63b0backed Yes | 4c | 1,221$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb5…8136backed Yes | 4c | 1,073$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…0144backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1f…ec73backed Yes | 6c | 901$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ee…48cebacked Yes | 4c | 550.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 4c | 501.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 7c | 500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…2b6abacked Yes | 4c | 461.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…a395backed Yes | 9c | 427.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6baf…3841backed Yes | 6c | 411.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 3c | 363$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…8dbabacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252e…189dbacked Yes | 8c | 182.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9356…c2f3backed Yes | 10c | 154.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? this page
- Another party wins the second most seats in next UK election? No won
- Conservatives win the second most seats in next UK election? Yes won
- Labour wins the second most seats in next UK election?No won
- Liberal Democrats win the second most seats in next UK election? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.