World Politics · resolved market
Liberal Democrats win the second most seats in next UK election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b1b9e20c4f1a24a4b5f9d927e23964a8575cb5078a4b92744d9f0496d6d79d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 23c | 6,081$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95ab…4ecbbacked Yes | 12c | 4,937$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 8c | 4,789$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.71 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked Yes | 13c | 4,500$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Yes | 19c | 4,273$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.89 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…9db4backed No | 78c | 3,834$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 22c | 3,802$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.98 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…3546backed Yes | 25c | 2,967$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 15c | 2,777$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.54 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d1…1a60backed Yes | 21c | 1,581$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1f…ec73backed Yes | 26c | 901$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ff…8047backed Yes | 9c | 700$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x145c…962bbacked Yes | 16c | 694$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e2…9629backed Yes | 21c | 675.8$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.83 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…eaf9backed Yes | 17c | 576.56$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5eb…c75abacked Yes | 15c | 354.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 19c | 351.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x415d…8cf8backed Yes | 14c | 334$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…1d90backed Yes | 19c | 315.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…7a0ebacked Yes | 13c | 307.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c20…fdc5backed Yes | 14c | 220.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +160.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca9…6ccfbacked No | 80c | 216.7$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…4325backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 13c | 144.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb5…8136backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…6533backed Yes | 23c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7846…2576backed Yes | 21c | 56.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Liberal Democrats win the second most seats in next UK election? this page
- Another party wins the second most seats in next UK election? No won
- Conservatives win the second most seats in next UK election? Yes won
- Labour wins the second most seats in next UK election?No won
- Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.