World Politics · resolved market
Conservatives win the second most seats in next UK election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdf50fc90cd5155830c0b25fc8285d83bb74be3e3cc906fe5b0ddac2c91eeecf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $185,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $214,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 10c | 17,704$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…eaf9backed No | 31c | 8,484$2,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,612.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed No | 28c | 7,070$1,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed Yes | 69c | 5,873$4,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798.14 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Yes | 72c | 5,338$3,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505.7 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…dfc8backed Yes | 70c | 3,566$2,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 16c | 3,500$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.51 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…033cbacked Yes | 76c | 2,939$2,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.43 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 74c | 1,912$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.17 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 30c | 1,816$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.81 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66b8…6e63backed No | 3c | 1,689$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6e…7bcdbacked Yes | 71c | 1,356$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked No | 26c | 1,255$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.9 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes | 76c | 1,057$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.54 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1f…ec73backed Yes | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca62…fbfabacked Yes | 73c | 935$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 74c | 894.64$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.61 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes | 69c | 820.44$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.81 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…353bbacked Yes | 74c | 807.03$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.87 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 74c | 739.99$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.2 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…cc0ebacked Yes | 74c | 686$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.52 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Yes | 68c | 678.04$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2378…a059backed Yes | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed Yes | 76c | 490.92$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.82 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6e…2003backed Yes | 79c | 485$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f1…1c8ebacked Yes | 80c | 362.07$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes | 72c | 347.22$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +409.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 74c | 321.96$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…36d3backed Yes | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…d0e8backed Yes | 77c | 235.37$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…3be1backed No | 20c | 224.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 79c | 220.91$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb162…ac27backed Yes | 71c | 211.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb6…b0b6backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x979c…ad17backed Yes | 71c | 172.59$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…a395backed No | 32c | 161.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a1…8d1cbacked Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec08…9fcfbacked Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05da…7e46backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd3…6b51backed Yes | 71c | 55.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -28%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf271…1157backed Yes | 69c | 42.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1840…f5f9backed Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ee…e345backed Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…b098backed Yes | 72c | 34.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1139…6970backed Yes | 73c | 31.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca9…6ccfbacked Yes | 74c | 23.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf84c…9262backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…323bbacked Yes | 75c | 19.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 71c | 19.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae62…5146backed Yes | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…50ddbacked Yes | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Conservatives win the second most seats in next UK election? this page
- Another party wins the second most seats in next UK election? No won
- Labour wins the second most seats in next UK election?No won
- Liberal Democrats win the second most seats in next UK election? No won
- Reform wins the second most seats in next UK election? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.