Premier League · resolved market
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd77154fd20b95b96463bf2b9e7139aefaa92d777400b88aaa6e13299616dec21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 69c | 1,467$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.58 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 62c | 857.45$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.58 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c5…9256backed Yes | 65c | 664.37$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 67c | 343.92$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.33 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 68c | 237.8$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 168 | 48.8%82 W · 86 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Yes | 74c | 227.4$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ca…bb25backed No | 26c | 210$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f1…3e4fbacked Yes | 54c | 125.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 59c | 68.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 129 | 59.7%77 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea03…0aa1backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…ba8abacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdefa…2394backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d4…35eabacked Yes | 70c | 26.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +388.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPLthis page
- Will Jarrod Bowen be the top goalscorer in the EPL?No won
- Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL?No won
- Will Ollie Watkins be the top goalscorer in the EPL?No won
- Will Son Heung Min be the top goalscorer in the EPL?No won
- Will another player be the top goalscorer in the EPL?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.