Us Politics · resolved market
Trump violates gag order?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1e17fe6349bfd6fbdbff1406308de46dd9f7f2c801fa109d6be170fdec9ddee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccec…28ffbacked No | 15c | 4,702$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -77%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 44c | 2,864$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,608.52 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 57c | 2,675$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.63 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…1edebacked No | 51c | 2,472$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 60c | 1,964$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.94 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 16c | 1,475$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.96 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 52c | 1,089$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.61 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 50c | 1,050$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fc…cff4backed No | 65c | 1,038$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b0…d679backed No | 25c | 762.68$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 34c | 720.59$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.4 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 48c | 605$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.6 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes | 52c | 520.04$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2e…1a49backed No | 58c | 516.1$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Yes | 43c | 254.05$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…6610backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 35c | 158.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 47c | 108$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26d…9331backed No | 63c | 107.27$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…1ec7backed No | 63c | 43.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…9769backed Yes | 49c | 39.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.