TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran military response by Sunday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$179,867
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$160,482

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,867 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes4c20,000$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8503941%16 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes7c17,180$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.219815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x105b…08f0backed Yes12c9,135$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.86714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffb3…ad95backed Yes0c7,649$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb999…8441backed Yes6c4,993$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.55911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick35cpaid-72.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a28…3ca9backed Yes15c4,541$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.542050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb8a…7a17backed Yes9c4,105$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.91520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-74.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes8c4,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes25c3,770$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.81127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc411…caa7backed Yes6c3,068$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes8c2,920$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.4326423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes7c2,692$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.631723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes5c2,613$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.321926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dbd…af92backed Yes8c2,513$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.06812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-49.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes4c2,233$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-77.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed No64c2,193$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.083243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No73c2,054$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.910150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2736…3625backed Yes18c2,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-78.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x48a6…6bd0backed No71c1,826$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7523…4c4cbacked Yes10c1,691$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.011241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fd3…6346backed Yes28c1,679$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f5…9663backed Yes23c1,621$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.95240%0 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes10c1,503$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.555143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x662b…1ecdbacked Yes5c1,500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2d…d0cfbacked Yes21c1,362$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.1340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ab…3e5cbacked Yes41c1,219$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes5c1,111$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.552458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ca…e5cfbacked Yes10c1,036$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60339.1%3 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-47.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8e82…64abbacked Yes6c999.95$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3921…0cf4backed Yes8c987.15$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.73837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3a0…d247backed Yes7c967.93$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8580%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6aa…8531backed Yes26c907.52$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.39650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec8…96a5backed No74c894$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.185644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c6…b942backed Yes19c891.68$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.651127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa69f…6874backed Yes9c844.52$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.231136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…74d1backed Yes34c835.5$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.63540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes5c743.1$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.162326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ad5…03a1backed Yes21c708.55$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.77837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick27cpaid-14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1820…e3f7backed No75c707.73$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.833850%19 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed No68c703$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.1411559.1%68 W · 47 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3391…ed51backed Yes23c672.26$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.28250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd31c…b93fbacked Yes40c668$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3168…6734backed No60c668$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.23540%14 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c29…ac77backed Yes40c661.8$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7108…7492backed No48c626.35$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.351330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b43…35d2backed Yes13c610$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.560%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0491…dbe0backed Yes25c597$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No73c591$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.572147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed No66c575.08$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.43435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x021a…c19dbacked Yes14c566.46$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2600…2829backed Yes15c549.99$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832825%7 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-51.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes5c520$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df0…a9bfbacked Yes55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes32c499.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160254%1 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.24per pick28cpaid-83.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7327…b473backed Yes32c466.67$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.711656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes7c422.22$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281931.6%6 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick21cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No76c400$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9613850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec8f…a260backed No78c400$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb98…8bfdbacked No80c399.98$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-68.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfaa2…93ccbacked No76c375$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+64.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe732…ced9backed No80c357.94$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.771353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6466…95afbacked Yes24c355$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdc5…3f96backed Yes7c349.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4760%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3083…7d86backed Yes6c348.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe406…f3c0backed Yes6c342.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ee…ec14backed No60c332.96$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.188951.7%46 W · 43 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fd…9fc2backed Yes45c329.31$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.4730%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e66…8c05backed Yes28c310$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.990%0 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes41c299.97$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.994922.4%11 W · 38 L-9.6wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-67.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x2de1…45a9backed Yes10c280.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf40a…8114backed No72c257.72$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.511968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+27%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes42c255.15$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.452810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe085…5474backed Yes21c235.71$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.53743.2%16 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+123.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1459…ab65backed No64c234.38$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.381070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8109…aedabacked No70c232.53$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.75944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1804…9408backed Yes7c228.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-57.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes67c221.88$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.6630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No62c219.87$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4114724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x405b…5f3ebacked Yes23c199.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.21118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-65.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1045…b64ebacked Yes26c199.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No60c199.98$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.496726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33e8…2896backed No78c199.74$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.941353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick42cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8756…82d7backed No75c196.72$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff19…b283backed No78c196.37$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cbd…2685backed Yes23c194.49$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x619a…1c64backed Yes27c193.32$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes32c189.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.770%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95e5…e2d4backed No79c189.87$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes30c174.77$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.77830.8%24 W · 54 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd37b…edb2backed No65c169.33$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes37c157.38$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.234156.1%23 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4320…767dbacked Yes9c150$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d24…d227backed No74c150$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick62cpaid+9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Yes36c150$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+33.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d6e…96ffbacked No63c149.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa218…94cdbacked No36c124.85$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.153246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90de…0a6dbacked No71c113.12$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.12955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7567…6c48backed No80c113$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.61973.7%14 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes31c112.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-36%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.