Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Doug Burgum for Energy Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x537c7f1d5724c50db3a5a48a6a139a40c527cdcff99b6273e1d978a7b885a9eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,251$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 79c | 8,250$6,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,739.98 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c8…c493backed Yes | 24c | 7,776$1,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,888.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bf…eb1abacked Yes | 50c | 5,051$2,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,511.06 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 77c | 4,665$3,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.68 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 40c | 2,987$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,796.01 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63fa…c7f8backed No | 50c | 2,078$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…cae3backed Yes | 50c | 2,039$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed No | 66c | 2,004$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.66 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 39c | 1,983$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.96 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 58c | 1,947$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.15 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 60c | 1,805$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.93 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed No | 48c | 1,429$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.71 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x305c…dc57backed Yes | 39c | 1,254$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked No | 39c | 1,150$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 58c | 1,101$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.88 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 36c | 896.95$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.7 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x235c…ba38backed Yes | 22c | 765.1$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…d6e2backed Yes | 53c | 709.43$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes | 57c | 700$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 56c | 689.6$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.89 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…6d1dbacked Yes | 60c | 672.44$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.24 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4341…fe46backed Yes | 62c | 520.98$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x544c…430cbacked Yes | 68c | 509.2$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e9…81f8backed No | 53c | 446$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5850…e671backed Yes | 47c | 446$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 51c | 394.22$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.82 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed No | 40c | 354$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.94 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…563dbacked Yes | 61c | 340.32$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc1…c249backed Yes | 47c | 308.18$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…ace9backed No | 45c | 290$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed Yes | 70c | 287.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39bc…f0b4backed Yes | 52c | 269.23$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 65c | 259.3$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.62 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed No | 40c | 258.33$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 52c | 250$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 66c | 238.67$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.36 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…4301backed Yes | 47c | 226$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37f…fb4ebacked No | 53c | 226$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…5febbacked No | 53c | 222$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ea…9c6abacked Yes | 47c | 222$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f00…77babacked Yes | 53c | 219.01$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 49c | 212.8$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…00b3backed Yes | 49c | 203.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 193.01$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.05 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 48c | 189$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…edfcbacked Yes | 55c | 181.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 50c | 177.75$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.21 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 54c | 160$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Yes | 61c | 153.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4578…c54abacked Yes | 50c | 150$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 42c | 133$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 127.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4219…9711backed Yes | 63c | 119.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 42c | 115$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3928…fc16backed Yes | 45c | 111.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a7c4backed Yes | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…1191backed Yes | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…2b6abacked Yes | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…09b5backed Yes | 56c | 107.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…3802backed Yes | 49c | 104.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…1ddebacked Yes | 60c | 103.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…76febacked No | 31c | 102.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.54 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d85…4df9backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e5…316dbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85a5…c8d9backed No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…6350backed Yes | 63c | 95.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…6808backed Yes | 52c | 92.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…d251backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 64cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5840…3e0cbacked Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…d826backed Yes | 49c | 55.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb263…80fdbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 63c | 44.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…41b7backed Yes | 41c | 41.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…3c93backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…56acbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5225…fa3abacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27be…c063backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4298…f07dbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…5ddcbacked No | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 69c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…e637backed Yes | 55c | 25.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Doug Burgum for Energy Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Dan Brouillette for Energy Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Mark Menezes for Energy Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Paul Dabbar for Energy Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Rick Perry for Energy Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate another person for Energy Secretary?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.