TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump nominate Doug Burgum for Energy Secretary?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,345
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,057

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,345 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c15,251$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.52400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No79c8,250$6,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,739.9835519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9c8…c493backed Yes24c7,776$1,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,888.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54bf…eb1abacked Yes50c5,051$2,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,511.061822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked No77c4,665$3,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.686728.4%19 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No40c2,987$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,796.017331.5%23 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63fa…c7f8backed No50c2,078$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6777…cae3backed Yes50c2,039$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed No66c2,004$1,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.664839.6%19 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0208219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed No39c1,983$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.965834.5%20 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No58c1,947$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.1513537.8%51 W · 84 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed No60c1,805$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.938843.2%38 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x47bc…c043backed No48c1,429$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.711942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+1.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x305c…dc57backed Yes39c1,254$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.861040%4 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked No39c1,150$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7072147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes58c1,101$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.8899629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes36c896.95$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.717225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x235c…ba38backed Yes22c765.1$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1671250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df7…d6e2backed Yes53c709.43$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes57c700$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001010%1 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-75.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No56c689.6$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.8921634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250a…6d1dbacked Yes60c672.44$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.243243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4341…fe46backed Yes62c520.98$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x544c…430cbacked Yes68c509.2$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.67862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68e9…81f8backed No53c446$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5850…e671backed Yes47c446$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No51c394.22$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.8212531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x133b…2f22backed No40c354$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.944247.6%20 W · 22 L+6.9wins+0.17per pick31cpaid+68.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xe06d…563dbacked Yes61c340.32$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5dc1…c249backed Yes47c308.18$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes63c300$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18913525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed Yes35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1058127.2%22 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8387…ace9backed No45c290$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.52045%9 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed Yes70c287.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39bc…f0b4backed Yes52c269.23$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes65c259.3$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.6237844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x77cf…0e71backed No40c258.33$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1552729.6%8 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8219…f1fabacked Yes52c250$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1293033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-43.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked Yes52c250$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes66c238.67$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.363441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14ac…4301backed Yes47c226$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc37f…fb4ebacked No53c226$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1547…5febbacked No53c222$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3ea…9c6abacked Yes47c222$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f00…77babacked Yes53c219.01$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-42.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes49c212.8$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1316854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1dc8…00b3backed Yes49c203.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.96425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-64.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf0…0245backed Yes41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed No47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1069142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No34c193.01$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.0596319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes48c189$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.887441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb760…edfcbacked Yes55c181.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69a4…bba9backed No50c177.75$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.215655.4%31 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes54c160$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.428320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d90…85aabacked Yes61c153.97$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4578…c54abacked Yes50c150$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.51952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes42c133$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0923639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes37c127.46$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.631,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4219…9711backed Yes63c119.05$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7580%0 W · 8 L-3.6wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked No42c115$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.718914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3928…fc16backed Yes45c111.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfba0…a7c4backed Yes47c110$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.82962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+44.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6367…1191backed Yes53c110$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+34.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ae…2b6abacked Yes64c109.38$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabe9…09b5backed Yes56c107.82$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603721.6%8 W · 29 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa899…3802backed Yes49c104.79$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.251136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadaf…1ddebacked Yes60c103.95$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.52835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd46b…76febacked No31c102.34$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.543531.4%11 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5037740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked Yes53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-69.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5322347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d85…4df9backed Yes55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.63268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+46.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7a70…95ddbacked No38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-73.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e5…316dbacked Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85a5…c8d9backed No59c99.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.991711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-76.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4302…6350backed Yes63c95.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.211747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0121…6808backed Yes52c92.12$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…d251backed Yes63c79.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501030%3 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.34per pick64cpaid-59.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed Yes69c60$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.13154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5840…3e0cbacked Yes53c56.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0aae…d826backed Yes49c55.43$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.162347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb263…80fdbacked Yes60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62f8…7737backed Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.754969.4%34 W · 15 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+44.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes63c44.19$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.847146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xccf2…41b7backed Yes41c41.95$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.092740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b92…8bb4backed No52c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.23522.9%8 W · 27 L-6.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-47.2%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1417713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.85851.7%30 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a31…3c93backed Yes53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x108f…56acbacked Yes55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-57.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5225…fa3abacked Yes56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27be…c063backed Yes46c32.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4298…f07dbacked Yes38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.42065%13 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd8…5ddcbacked No51c27.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.451241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes69c27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.633330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161c…e637backed Yes55c25.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-43.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f24…513ebacked Yes47c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.751060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+38.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed No54c24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.969829.6%29 W · 69 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.