Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Dan Brouillette for Energy Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x046f8f9419c187f12db763db8e6c18dc27cca4a49c944504c526adfae3a2a757
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 17c | 3,035$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.83 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 65c | 769$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.15 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 45c | 566.45$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.53 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed No | 50c | 548.17$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.57 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 32c | 393.35$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.41 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 7c | 326.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 12c | 298.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 288.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…3802backed Yes | 40c | 263.05$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 27c | 221$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 62c | 211.5$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.82 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 23c | 206.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 18c | 170$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 27c | 160$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 26c | 110.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f00…77babacked No | 76c | 102.09$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 75c | 83.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 25c | 72.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…925bbacked Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50a6…31b9backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…d251backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 64cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ab8cbacked Yes | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 24c | 45.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3c…bfd4backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked No | 49c | 37.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4341…fe46backed No | 69c | 22.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Dan Brouillette for Energy Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Doug Burgum for Energy Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Mark Menezes for Energy Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Paul Dabbar for Energy Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Rick Perry for Energy Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate another person for Energy Secretary?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.