TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Arsenal win on 2024-10-19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$146,332
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$138,411

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,332 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 315 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6761…a94fbacked No45c35,816$16,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,788.1710650%53 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked No43c15,164$6,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,699.8418950.3%95 W · 94 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc43c…e9e8backed No46c10,796$4,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,872.551450%7 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes55c10,304$5,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,664.3722744.5%101 W · 126 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ea…cbf1backed Yes56c10,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,6001625%4 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No41c8,717$3,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,159.2331944.5%142 W · 177 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x02cb…ae38backed Yes55c5,527$3,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,041.9915554.8%85 W · 70 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ee…d947backed Yes60c4,968$2,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,980.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b94…ce9dbacked Yes22c4,797$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.421216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed No56c4,729$2,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,062.437841.8%158 W · 220 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked No45c4,308$1,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,383.7140254.7%220 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked No42c3,368$1,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,953.1722050%110 W · 110 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a68…003abacked Yes72c2,945$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,120450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes55c1,920$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06318433.7%62 W · 122 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91ef…4f7cbacked Yes56c1,834$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Yes55c1,833$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.219652%102 W · 94 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Yes39c1,758$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.871833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-53.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c5c…2d34backed Yes60c1,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-25.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4594…b1acbacked Yes59c1,523$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.718259.8%49 W · 33 L+0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No41c1,523$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.714852.1%25 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1645…47a0backed Yes34c1,480$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003040%12 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed Yes54c1,447$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.4315337.3%57 W · 96 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1394…e426backed No47c1,410$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.61650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31cf…8834backed Yes57c1,334$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.579037.8%34 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60044939.6%178 W · 271 L+1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfda…4fe6backed No43c1,143$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.96346%29 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93b0…69c8backed No41c1,140$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.742035%7 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x851b…1b79backed Yes59c1,017$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60090%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Yes60c1,017$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.052433.3%8 W · 16 L-5.1wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-43.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x81f7…e1d3backed Yes59c1,015$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-31.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5809917.2%17 W · 82 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Yes57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57034643.9%152 W · 194 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bf4…952ebacked Yes56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5604447.7%21 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x318c…1a2abacked No45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5501100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3321…6ff5backed Yes56c966.79$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes58c935.5$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.718734.5%30 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986d…e281backed Yes32c934.78$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+20.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87f7…94e7backed Yes59c930.29$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.874438.6%17 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Yes55c909.09$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50029044.8%130 W · 160 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1820…e3f7backed Yes45c903.99$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.693951.3%20 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0b1…28cfbacked Yes58c872.23$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a23…079fbacked Yes56c750$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27df…b9cfbacked Yes46c700$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3241225%3 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-45.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4dde…eb38backed Yes56c696.43$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes57c685.79$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.3210848.1%52 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb7e…d71fbacked No78c622.12$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.875100%5 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb27e…1961backed Yes59c589.82$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1200…a827backed Yes60c583.33$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-67.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x578a…ef44backed Yes57c565.33$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.782536%9 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35cd…160fbacked Yes58c560.86$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x520e…ad5ebacked Yes56c515.46$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+67.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x19da…5f1abacked Yes59c508.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed No45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2756959.4%41 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc681…14cbbacked Yes56c484.44$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.04475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae6f…7399backed Yes60c433.33$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2583148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1266…cd8cbacked No41c399.98$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.9914450.7%73 W · 71 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a7…6571backed Yes59c369.61$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+98.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e15…567bbacked No47c367.28$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5047…db74backed Yes59c357.07$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+127.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe54b…d268backed Yes59c353.24$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bd7…c1f3backed Yes45c350$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.53534.3%12 W · 23 L-5.7wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-33%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x29fe…c0f6backed No47c348.53$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x049d…292abacked Yes59c338.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe483…b5a0backed Yes60c335.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1de9…16a6backed Yes63c320.88$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06fe…e0eabacked Yes59c320.12$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.87250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c01…a931backed No46c304.39$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x501a…d46dbacked Yes58c304.14$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.751926.3%5 W · 14 L-5.0wins-0.26per pick53cpaid-49.1%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Yes46c300$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1378633.7%29 W · 57 L-14.7wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-36.3%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x05ad…72d7backed Yes56c296.1$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.825641.1%23 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x58f2…a3e2backed Yes56c276.66$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.932634.6%9 W · 17 L-5.5wins-0.21per pick56cpaid-38.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2ce7…fd4abacked Yes57c263.16$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb3d…bd14backed Yes25c250$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed3e…21a8backed Yes59c250$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.5580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9681…eadabacked Yes56c248.14$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c56…dfa1backed Yes56c241.07$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+51.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes21c238$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9866031.2%206 W · 454 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200e…d146backed Yes60c233.33$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2545…fea3backed Yes60c233.33$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cd9…1095backed No78c225.28$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.566752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8cd3…3c5abacked Yes58c223.31$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked No11c222$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.5819743.7%86 W · 111 L+32.4wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+142.5%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x484c…017ebacked Yes32c220.27$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702725.9%7 W · 20 L-5.9wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-39.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xea0b…1f5bbacked Yes54c214.86$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.556747.8%32 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x089b…2193backed Yes59c213.88$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.191947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes59c203.39$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce62…73d5backed Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565032%16 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x65a6…3e59backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016953.3%90 W · 79 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaeed…074bbacked No42c199.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1169943.4%43 W · 56 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c2…0a62backed Yes61c188.9$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.233930.8%12 W · 27 L-8.6wins-0.22per pick53cpaid-50.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xd028…75f5backed Yes59c188.64$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.31968.4%13 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7082…0ababacked Yes57c187.02$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fa…b0dbbacked No47c180$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cac…6677backed Yes56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-55.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x933a…f821backed Yes51c176.71$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.16450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x089a…4bd5backed Yes57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-71.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc34…464ebacked Yes56c173.86$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd79c…a0e7backed Yes59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e23…f09abacked Yes59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f85…d745backed Yes59c169.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.995644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.