Movies · resolved market
Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $70m-80m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a4a25d45ef3a9e7d897579e6f85bc9296c2c94d99b50ca3640a325197f7785d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb404…0a05backed Yes | 1c | 32,916$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…1045backed Yes | 1c | 26,665$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.01 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 35c | 11,857$4,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,173.63 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…552ebacked Yes | 1c | 7,970$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 66c | 3,444$2,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 54c | 3,266$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.09 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed No | 55c | 1,741$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed No | 48c | 1,411$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c7…7354backed Yes | 7c | 1,241$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 61c | 1,047$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.01 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 3c | 830$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed Yes | 22c | 800$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…ad6bbacked Yes | 41c | 751.9$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 10c | 700$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad35…c926backed No | 61c | 533.07$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cf…dbadbacked Yes | 16c | 445.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f53…fa57backed Yes | 49c | 420$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e2…e5fcbacked Yes | 37c | 282.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…95a6backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…3b9cbacked Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6867…25b8backed Yes | 41c | 194.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 58cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa15c…537cbacked Yes | 53c | 193.66$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0c…4bf8backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddc…e88abacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x704b…befebacked Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2a…6fd1backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…b8fdbacked No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 58c | 65.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…d119backed Yes | 36c | 65.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…1f5ebacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83c6…cd6abacked Yes | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 45c | 23.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…a8f7backed No | 65c | 19.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $70m-80m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $80m-90m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross under $70m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.