Movies · resolved market
Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross under $70m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d293ab1b2f7b68c0eb7106e827f9210e54ebf007de7b15c6216ebc0eb95de42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $196,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6c7…7354backed Yes | 0c | 28,450$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…552ebacked Yes | 0c | 22,700$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8069…a6adbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…1edebacked Yes | 9c | 16,508$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.53 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…1045backed Yes | 0c | 13,200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 4c | 3,138$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.1 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 79c | 2,337$1,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.35 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…95a6backed No | 71c | 1,841$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e9…8b44backed No | 56c | 1,700$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 25c | 1,600$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…d3a1backed No | 56c | 1,200$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2e…1a49backed Yes | 34c | 1,192$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed Yes | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa15c…537cbacked Yes | 24c | 621.97$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 20c | 611.58$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 74c | 590.63$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.43 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3098…568abacked Yes | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 37c | 386.62$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.3 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bc…5d9fbacked No | 55c | 365.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 300$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…4c15backed Yes | 16c | 297.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0c…4bf8backed Yes | 8c | 250.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddc…e88abacked No | 62c | 240$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 34c | 221.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed No | 67c | 101.02$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b7…e7e2backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b6…9a18backed Yes | 32c | 88.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…d119backed Yes | 32c | 82.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…c50bbacked No | 64c | 63.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…1f5ebacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…a395backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8eafbacked Yes | 27c | 42.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2a…6fd1backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…ad6bbacked No | 74c | 37.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa239…8a68backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross under $70m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $70m-80m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $80m-90m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.