Movies · resolved market
Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cf06bc2611641b8d3bd72a00c368e243b0495f144035a3db03b888dda89f74f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $474,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $470,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $474,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa357…1045backed Yes | 1c | 104,406$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.26 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 7c | 69,879$4,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,928.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb404…0a05backed Yes | 2c | 27,972$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bc…5d9fbacked Yes | 4c | 21,163$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…e314backed Yes | 3c | 17,148$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c7…7354backed Yes | 1c | 14,895$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d4…645dbacked Yes | 2c | 10,573$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…552ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,499$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8069…a6adbacked Yes | 1c | 7,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…8c70backed Yes | 4c | 6,064$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad35…c926backed Yes | 6c | 5,249$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cf…dbadbacked Yes | 3c | 4,773$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e9…8b44backed Yes | 8c | 4,578$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…21d2backed Yes | 1c | 4,020$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6511…400cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,421$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa4…5bc6backed Yes | 12c | 3,058$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…e659backed Yes | 7c | 2,856$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…156fbacked Yes | 11c | 2,800$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…d3a1backed Yes | 7c | 2,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…59e9backed Yes | 1c | 2,499$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed Yes | 11c | 2,394$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b83…6c7ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadde…eb78backed Yes | 3c | 1,030$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b8…3842backed Yes | 16c | 954.34$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 5c | 920.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…d119backed Yes | 7c | 728.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bf…cde8backed Yes | 11c | 399.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…a8f7backed Yes | 4c | 386.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddc…e88abacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2a…6fd1backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…c50bbacked Yes | 11c | 240.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a18…f689backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $70m-80m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $80m-90m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross under $70m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.