Movies · resolved market
Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $80m-90m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45b4ecea87726c997c46358266818a11cdc6f6a68ff1a4c468352473512d070c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb404…0a05backed No | 2c | 30,069$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…1045backed No | 1c | 17,840$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.58 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 53c | 11,615$6,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,204.78 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 29c | 3,123$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,230.81 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 69c | 3,061$2,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 55c | 1,749$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.78 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 66c | 1,719$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…95a6backed Yes | 22c | 1,495$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e9…8b44backed Yes | 19c | 989.47$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 25c | 937.91$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.5 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dba…b40ebacked Yes | 30c | 625$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…df8ebacked No | 19c | 515$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…e659backed Yes | 37c | 499.13$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…ad6bbacked Yes | 39c | 459.22$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 27c | 424.26$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.26 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cf…dbadbacked Yes | 25c | 410$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f53…fa57backed Yes | 35c | 390$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…3b9cbacked Yes | 25c | 308$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73e2…e5fcbacked Yes | 46c | 280$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadde…eb78backed Yes | 38c | 227.53$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.07 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x704b…befebacked Yes | 29c | 220$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 75c | 210$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddc…e88abacked Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 56c | 95.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d4…645dbacked No | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…50c9backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea03…0aa1backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…a395backed Yes | 27c | 49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17fc…2b02backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…21d2backed Yes | 79c | 16.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $80m-90m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $70m-80m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross between $90m-100m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross over $100m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Dune: Part Two' gross under $70m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.