Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Sid Miller for Agriculture Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62cb3e1f93e717296c7207c645adce86a47849997ab96191d05362dce2914300
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,081$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 26c | 2,186$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.89 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 15c | 1,428$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.86 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 76c | 732.31$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.7 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 18c | 461.3$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.69 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 19c | 387.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 74c | 351.49$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 18c | 337.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…41b7backed No | 75c | 328.92$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 23c | 281.12$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb2…8cd7backed Yes | 11c | 277.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…5b47backed Yes | 20c | 230.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 21c | 190.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…6d1dbacked Yes | 7c | 176.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 20c | 148.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504e…8080backed Yes | 11c | 125.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4c…f025backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…6ea2backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 18c | 98.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99b2…d861backed Yes | 16c | 92.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…d251backed Yes | 33c | 90.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 64cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 18c | 78.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 23c | 76.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 71.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8054…b463backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Yes | 26c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27be…c063backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…a106backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d5…682bbacked No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 27c | 53.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 67c | 42.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…9194backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7116…0e72backed Yes | 56c | 26.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Sid Miller for Agriculture Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Charles Herbster for Agriculture Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Cindy Hyde-Smith for Agriculture Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kelly Loeffler for Agriculture Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kip Tom for Agriculture Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. for Agriculture Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Sarah Frey for Agriculture Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Ted McKinney for Agriculture Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Thomas Massie for Agriculture Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.