Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Thomas Massie for Agriculture Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fe73973d40c2a0bdbfa38581374d4dc580c5cb38c9131e491589851e76bea9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 5c | 11,471$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.87 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 33c | 6,668$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200.44 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce6…26bdbacked Yes | 17c | 6,190$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.27 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed No | 2c | 4,444$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,355.12 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 69c | 3,048$2,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.72 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Yes | 7c | 2,050$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 31c | 1,683$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.81 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x381e…bc2cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba2…0874backed Yes | 33c | 1,283$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 69c | 1,086$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.64 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,008$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…f756backed No | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 970.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed Yes | 35c | 909.16$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.1 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb169…b67abacked No | 50c | 798.29$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.19 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 33c | 769.04$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.27 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…12a3backed Yes | 19c | 588.68$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed No | 69c | 516.49$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.38 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked No | 77c | 458.35$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.96 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 20c | 429.19$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed Yes | 20c | 425.45$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 21c | 400$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…5b47backed Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 67c | 337$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.94 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed Yes | 34c | 275.74$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 19c | 265.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 7c | 264.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +146.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 205$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 14c | 199$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe97b…b2eabacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 34c | 147.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb2…8cd7backed Yes | 34c | 145.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad3…b694backed Yes | 16c | 112.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d1…7beebacked Yes | 21c | 111$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 33c | 105.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 98.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…925bbacked Yes | 42c | 95.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5840…3e0cbacked Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc96…71b6backed Yes | 25c | 78.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 18c | 71.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 28c | 58.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 33c | 42.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e63…9f9bbacked Yes | 38c | 33.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec2…0cb3backed Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 70c | 24.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Thomas Massie for Agriculture Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Charles Herbster for Agriculture Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Cindy Hyde-Smith for Agriculture Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kelly Loeffler for Agriculture Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kip Tom for Agriculture Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. for Agriculture Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Sarah Frey for Agriculture Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Sid Miller for Agriculture Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Ted McKinney for Agriculture Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.