Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. for Agriculture Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x950492d6443ce38a908ec887bba35df11bcee641cac496b2f9ad69dbe4b27bb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes | 0c | 19,900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 19c | 12,654$2,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,406.67 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 9c | 9,000$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.73 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,134$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…7948backed Yes | 9c | 5,710$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 20c | 2,156$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.31 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a90…265dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 6c | 1,750$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes | 7c | 1,194$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.28 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 64c | 953.85$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.92 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x504e…8080backed Yes | 15c | 805.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 13c | 761.95$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…8f3fbacked Yes | 10c | 609.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…0626backed No | 30c | 588.18$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.14 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +6.5wins | +0.34per pick | 24cpaid | +178.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0d…2b92backed Yes | 19c | 485.62$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 11c | 455$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…41b7backed No | 79c | 445.25$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.33 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 10c | 392.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…ecabbacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb2…8cd7backed Yes | 17c | 347.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed Yes | 7c | 320$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c5…4052backed Yes | 13c | 319.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 288.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…c1cfbacked Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…6d1dbacked Yes | 14c | 184.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 181.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 67c | 150.93$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…b6b5backed No | 72c | 138.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 14c | 103.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 68c | 101.16$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…863dbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45f8…6ea2backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a9…f39bbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c7…1db8backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85cf…2dd7backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed No | 73c | 63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 22c | 53.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb263…80fdbacked Yes | 29c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. for Agriculture Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Charles Herbster for Agriculture Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Cindy Hyde-Smith for Agriculture Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kelly Loeffler for Agriculture Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Kip Tom for Agriculture Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Sarah Frey for Agriculture Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Sid Miller for Agriculture Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Ted McKinney for Agriculture Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Thomas Massie for Agriculture Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.