Fed Rates · resolved market
US inflation >0.3% from March to April 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7df5350a4663cad59efea596589ea9fcfc5f5fecec8a107bbc9f2fd037165295
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e54…b7a3backed Yes | 62c | 5,120$3,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,165.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 39c | 4,978$1,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,047.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +69%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 60c | 2,994$1,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,791.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed No | 41c | 2,300$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…d5f4backed Yes | 62c | 2,079$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 33c | 1,644$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.98 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 27c | 1,500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…df21backed Yes | 73c | 900$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 45c | 754.47$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.56 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed No | 22c | 700$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Yes | 78c | 596.26$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 34c | 509.88$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.21 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked Yes | 57c | 488$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 60c | 470$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 40c | 400$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 61c | 384.62$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.62 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed No | 42c | 306.82$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.68 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeca…7377backed Yes | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 37c | 250$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked No | 27c | 250$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c95…4d15backed No | 40c | 222$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 38c | 180.65$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 65c | 129.85$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed No | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34b6…2a9ebacked No | 45c | 111.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd433…78cbbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf203…c9cfbacked Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 62c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66cd…7b7ebacked Yes | 66c | 38.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…b478backed Yes | 60c | 31.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa679…65afbacked No | 41c | 25.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.