Movies · resolved market
Will 'Civil War' gross between $20-23m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d2153d58bfbf6f2a1327bf36dd379a0391ff712308d491146c6a62142a85d06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 20c | 2,342$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.31 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 43c | 1,900$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 39c | 1,200$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.19 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked Yes | 43c | 750$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 8c | 675$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 16c | 644.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…ad6bbacked Yes | 11c | 594$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked No | 65c | 300$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 69c | 260$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 35c | 209.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 11c | 197.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Civil War' gross between $20-23m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Civil War' gross between $17-20m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Civil War' gross less than $17m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Civil War' gross more than $23m opening weekend?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.