Movies · resolved market
Will 'Civil War' gross less than $17m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedcaa4e5444457dec4b0e28e94b5ff9d660036935a32daa9d5e142210eb4ab24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccec…28ffbacked Yes | 8c | 7,926$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.67 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f4…1673backed Yes | 1c | 6,222$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,563$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,049$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…1edebacked Yes | 1c | 2,101$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 3c | 1,994$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed Yes | 15c | 500$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed No | 79c | 268.6$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Civil War' gross less than $17m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Civil War' gross between $17-20m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Civil War' gross between $20-23m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Civil War' gross more than $23m opening weekend?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.