Token Launches · resolved market
FriendTech market cap less than $1b one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba9680acdb32577f18c1c211ef13abad98a3b0765d671da4e04459c31a3de1d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c34…026fbacked Yes | 50c | 8,023$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,022.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed No | 54c | 7,525$4,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,053.88 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes | 29c | 3,744$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,667.99 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 45c | 1,908$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.24 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd421…1133backed Yes | 60c | 1,649$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Yes | 30c | 1,005$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 6c | 455$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcb…535bbacked Yes | 49c | 400$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e56…4199backed Yes | 27c | 243.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.56 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…85aabacked No | 64c | 205$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c67…9fd9backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d5…b41dbacked Yes | 75c | 153.83$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0871…dfdbbacked Yes | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac3…32d2backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fa…5a5abacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee8…621ebacked No | 71c | 82.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…a8bdbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 30c | 66.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5771backed Yes | 47c | 39.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +152.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FriendTech market cap less than $1b one day after launch?this page
- FriendTech market cap $1-2b one day after launch?No won
- FriendTech market cap $2-3b one day after launch?No won
- FriendTech market cap $3-4b one day after launch?No won
- FriendTech market cap $4-5b one day after launch?No won
- FriendTech market cap $5-10b one day after launch?No won
- FriendTech market cap more than $10b one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.