TailMyPicks
Market

Middle East · resolved market

Yahya Sinwar still Hamas leader by October 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$398,934
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$372,297

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $398,934 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes2c46,591$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.352846.4%13 W · 15 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-30.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5310…a500backed No50c12,978$6,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,536.89560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes20c12,325$2,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,428.528427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes5c10,614$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x867d…3f3bbacked Yes2c10,002$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.042236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecbf…a4bbbacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked Yes0c7,500$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-59.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Yes63c7,205$4,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,538.918749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca6…6b28backed Yes1c7,000$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.38742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes0c6,801$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.591533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-43.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2361…314bbacked Yes0c5,960$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed Yes2c5,085$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.095315.1%8 W · 45 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes1c5,074$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.422040%8 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d4f…6310backed Yes2c4,987$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.76333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b90…43cebacked No21c4,704$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,704.351729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+74%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18b0…2354backed Yes58c4,672$2,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,693.555736.8%21 W · 36 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x26ca…2125backed Yes73c4,534$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,300560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+132.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x831e…8db9backed No28c4,494$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,244.112737%10 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+41%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bb8…b136backed Yes1c4,168$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed No24c3,991$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,038.964030%12 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes3c3,651$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.492611.5%3 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04e…77dfbacked Yes1c3,611$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.971723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9f…aa81backed Yes76c3,500$2,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,676.022326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-4.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x46e0…d69abacked Yes2c3,333$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dc8…00b3backed Yes2c3,333$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+117.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa842…e305backed Yes40c3,264$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.1511329.2%33 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-37.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd0…722cbacked No32c3,014$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,058.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+215.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a90…265dbacked Yes1c3,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed Yes75c2,705$2,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,032.992157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9929…84cebacked Yes2c2,441$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d87…f6c2backed Yes8c2,400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x343d…cd2ebacked Yes76c2,327$1,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,771.0110052%52 W · 48 L-8.7wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4828…ddd9backed Yes4c2,274$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001560%9 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+115.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108727.6%24 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x382c…a0d7backed No59c2,000$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.993625%9 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x664d…aa7dbacked No32c1,958$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.76229%18 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes1c1,934$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.478125.9%21 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes75c1,900$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.944318.6%8 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b0b…3a52backed No16c1,858$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,560.922222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a20…101cbacked Yes5c1,800$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90966.7%6 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.56per pick10cpaid+974.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x4ec8…96a5backed Yes77c1,700$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.35644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a23…4a70backed Yes68c1,690$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.08425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed Yes2c1,650$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.652725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-44.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c1,583$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3177636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed Yes35c1,559$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.233243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked No27c1,541$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.7116743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd13…e6f1backed Yes14c1,428$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.921233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+90.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x081d…8c34backed Yes74c1,410$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,038.382360.9%14 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes77c1,333$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.2810150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b29…5967backed No26c1,329$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.111070%7 W · 3 L+3.9wins+0.39per pick31cpaid+156.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x37e5…316dbacked No24c1,274$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.98825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3921…0cf4backed No25c1,214$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.13837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No26c1,179$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.9436750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd8f6…58d6backed Yes4c1,086$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ce0…b2ffbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104440.9%18 W · 26 L+6.3wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+48.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes5c985$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.253633.3%12 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…bf70backed No24c885$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.451428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4059…23dabacked Yes1c850$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.153520%7 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No24c800$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60728750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5322…237abacked No20c799.98$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.98922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e91…b801backed No12c772.97$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.972759.3%16 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+69.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x151c…dd85backed Yes9c750$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07f4…dbfebacked Yes69c720.02$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes78c710.9$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.435354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60f5…6a2bbacked No32c656.25$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.255100%5 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+113.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3522…b100backed Yes3c652.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick16cpaid+196%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd049…5de7backed No76c649.99$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1562520%5 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+101.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c52…3115backed No26c609.81$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.54742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes79c600.78$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.6440433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4df…7f8ebacked No26c586.22$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.222326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7b5…6bb2backed Yes3c580$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6691…17cfbacked No39c574.1$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.24100%4 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+352.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No25c554.18$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.118220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fac…574ebacked No28c536.29$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.291643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No22c531$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.183458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5f…c1a5backed No31c517.41$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.012171.4%15 W · 6 L+6.6wins+0.31per pick40cpaid+64.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x4d7d…dafcbacked No13c500$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick29cpaid+143.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e79…bd8bbacked Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed Yes73c494.21$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.728844.3%39 W · 49 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+42.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f6…3cd9backed No24c492.62$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.39425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No32c490.13$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.6437740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Yes6c467.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304520%9 W · 36 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff05…0a63backed No22c446.42$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.0510428.8%30 W · 74 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No21c388.69$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.6140828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No40c362.82$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.0286542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a6d…3c85backed No28c357.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.146245.2%28 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed Yes73c354$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.4211559.1%68 W · 47 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes72c342.05$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.289234.8%32 W · 60 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed No22c341.85$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.3743212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf660…333fbacked Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5870…0dd1backed No37c330.03$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.53633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…fb51backed Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121827.8%5 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf01…492abacked No28c300$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae65…d7cdbacked No30c291$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+73.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked No22c278.37$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.13450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+48.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3321…6ff5backed No36c275$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked No26c265.73$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.7325518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed No18c265.07$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.489815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82d9…c24fbacked No29c264.64$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.932653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce3…a675backed No79c261.01$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.13540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.