Middle East · resolved market
Yahya Sinwar still Hamas leader by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44a23a99b4106399813d921551bc08e69c699fc8c14a8868724eea8b1827a435
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $398,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $372,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $398,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes | 2c | 46,591$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.35 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5310…a500backed No | 50c | 12,978$6,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,536.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 20c | 12,325$2,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,428.5 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 5c | 10,614$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x867d…3f3bbacked Yes | 2c | 10,002$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.04 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecbf…a4bbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 63c | 7,205$4,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,538.91 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,801$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…314bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,960$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 2c | 5,085$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.09 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,074$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4f…6310backed Yes | 2c | 4,987$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…43cebacked No | 21c | 4,704$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,704.35 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +74%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed Yes | 58c | 4,672$2,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,693.55 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…2125backed Yes | 73c | 4,534$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…8db9backed No | 28c | 4,494$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,244.11 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…b136backed Yes | 1c | 4,168$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 24c | 3,991$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,038.96 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes | 3c | 3,651$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…77dfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,611$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…aa81backed Yes | 76c | 3,500$2,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,676.02 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46e0…d69abacked Yes | 2c | 3,333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…00b3backed Yes | 2c | 3,333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 40c | 3,264$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.15 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd0…722cbacked No | 32c | 3,014$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,058.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +215.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a90…265dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed Yes | 75c | 2,705$2,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,032.99 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9929…84cebacked Yes | 2c | 2,441$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d87…f6c2backed Yes | 8c | 2,400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked Yes | 76c | 2,327$1,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,771.01 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4828…ddd9backed Yes | 4c | 2,274$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed No | 59c | 2,000$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.99 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked No | 32c | 1,958$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.7 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 1c | 1,934$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 75c | 1,900$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.94 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…3a52backed No | 16c | 1,858$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560.92 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,800$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.56per pick | 10cpaid | +974.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…96a5backed Yes | 77c | 1,700$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.3 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a23…4a70backed Yes | 68c | 1,690$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 2c | 1,650$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,583$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 35c | 1,559$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.23 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 27c | 1,541$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.71 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Yes | 14c | 1,428$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed Yes | 74c | 1,410$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.38 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 77c | 1,333$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.28 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b29…5967backed No | 26c | 1,329$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.11 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.39per pick | 31cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37e5…316dbacked No | 24c | 1,274$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3921…0cf4backed No | 25c | 1,214$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 26c | 1,179$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.94 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f6…58d6backed Yes | 4c | 1,086$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…b2ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 5c | 985$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…bf70backed No | 24c | 885$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.45 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked Yes | 1c | 850$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 24c | 800$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…237abacked No | 20c | 799.98$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed No | 12c | 772.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.97 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x151c…dd85backed Yes | 9c | 750$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f4…dbfebacked Yes | 69c | 720.02$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 78c | 710.9$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.43 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f5…6a2bbacked No | 32c | 656.25$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.25 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3522…b100backed Yes | 3c | 652.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +196%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd049…5de7backed No | 76c | 649.99$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c52…3115backed No | 26c | 609.81$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 79c | 600.78$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.64 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked No | 26c | 586.22$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.22 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b5…6bb2backed Yes | 3c | 580$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…17cfbacked No | 39c | 574.1$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +352.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 25c | 554.18$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.11 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fac…574ebacked No | 28c | 536.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 22c | 531$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.18 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…c1a5backed No | 31c | 517.41$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.01 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +6.6wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7d…dafcbacked No | 13c | 500$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +143.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e79…bd8bbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 73c | 494.21$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.72 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3cd9backed No | 24c | 492.62$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 32c | 490.13$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.64 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 6c | 467.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed No | 22c | 446.42$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.05 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 21c | 388.69$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.61 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 362.82$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.02 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed No | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 73c | 354$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.42 | 115 | 59.1%68 W · 47 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 72c | 342.05$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.28 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 22c | 341.85$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.37 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf660…333fbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5870…0dd1backed No | 37c | 330.03$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…fb51backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…492abacked No | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae65…d7cdbacked No | 30c | 291$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked No | 22c | 278.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3321…6ff5backed No | 36c | 275$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked No | 26c | 265.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.73 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 18c | 265.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.48 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d9…c24fbacked No | 29c | 264.64$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.93 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…a675backed No | 79c | 261.01$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.